Pittsburgh @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

6-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

3-5 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

PITT -13.5

✓ PITT W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 32–18 STAN

✓ PITT (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -13.5

ClosePITT -13.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -13.5

no move

ClosePITT -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -13.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -12

model PITT -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 45% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -13.5

ClosePITT -13.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 13.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PITT won 35–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 12.8; 62.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	TULN @ CLT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-14.5	34–3	W	U55
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Very close	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5
Very close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	24–31	L	U58
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	29–27	L	O50.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-12	45–31	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-1	5-1
STAN LLLWL	2-6	25%	2-1	2-5

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOOUO	7-1	88%	6-2
STAN OOUUO	4-4	50%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 564 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	9-1 90%
STAN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+2.5 →+8.4▲ 5.9#36

STAN−3.7 →−6.5▼ 2.8#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PITT

Longer bar = better

STAN

#49

Offense

◀ PITT better

#125

#24

Defense

◀ PITT better

#114

0.0 #73

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.8 #121

70 plays #33

Pace

◀ PITT faster

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #8	29.5 #102	PITT
Yards / play	6.05 #51	6.09 #113	PITT
PPA / play	+0.18 #46	+0.20 #117	PITT
Success rate	41% #92	46% #122	PITT

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	STAN off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #127	22.0 #50	PITT
Yards / play	4.77 #128	4.68 #20	PITT
PPA / play	+0.03 #117	−0.02 #20	PITT
Success rate	36% #129	33% #7	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.0 #16	13.6 #3	22.6 #8	8.9 #17	8.8 #31	17.6 #15
STAN allowed	6.4 #90	9.9 #113	16.3 #107	6.4 #93	6.9 #81	13.3 #95

STAN scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.0 #88	6.0 #108	11.0 #110	2.9 #129	3.6 #123	6.5 #134
PITT allowed	2.6 #17	8.5 #91	11.1 #47	2.5 #14	7.5 #96	10.0 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.