Stanford @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Stanford

3-6 · Power #85

final

Final

North Carolina

3-5 · Power #89

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -8.5

✓ STAN W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 18–26 UNC

✓ UNC (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -7.5

CloseUNC -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -7.5

1 → UNC

CloseUNC -8.5

1 pt toward North Carolina

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -7.5 · closed UNC -8.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel UNC -7

model UNC -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 50% (150 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (237 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -7.5

CloseUNC -8.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as an 8.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 20–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 7.1; 49 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs WMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–16	L	U44
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	42–0	W	U43
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLWLL	2-7	22%	0-5	2-6
UNC LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUUOO	5-4	56%	3-6
UNC UOUUU	2-6	25%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 54% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
UNC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−3.7 →−6.5▼ 2.8#92

UNC+2.3 →−4.3▼ 6.6#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

STAN

Longer bar = better

UNC

#128

Offense

Even

#117

#112

Defense

UNC better ▶

#42

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #110

65 plays #95

Pace

◀ STAN faster

60 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	STAN off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #127	22.1 #51	UNC
Yards / play	4.75 #126	4.83 #23	UNC
PPA / play	−0.02 #128	+0.08 #61	UNC
Success rate	35% #132	39% #32	UNC

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #122	30.1 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #114	6.13 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	+0.18 #109	Even
Success rate	39% #117	45% #118	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.6 #80	5.7 #113	11.2 #106	2.6 #133	4.0 #124	6.6 #134
UNC allowed	8.6 #125	5.8 #33	14.4 #85	4.4 #45	2.5 #3	6.9 #8

UNC scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	5.0 #91	4.5 #128	9.5 #118	4.3 #106	4.9 #113	9.1 #120
STAN allowed	6.4 #94	10.3 #116	16.8 #120	7.2 #109	6.1 #59	13.3 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.