California @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

California

6-4 · Power #76

final

Final

Stanford

3-7 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAL -4.5

✓ STAN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 26–22 STAN

✗ CAL (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -2.5

CloseCAL -4.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAL -2.5

2 → CAL

CloseCAL -4.5

2 pts toward California

Total

Open50.5

▼ 3

Close47.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAL -2.5 · closed CAL -4.5 · moved 2 toward CALmodel CAL -1

model CAL -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 48% (149 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (113 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCAL -2.5

CloseCAL -4.5

Total50.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 4.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 31–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 3.9; 56.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ORST 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	7–10	L	U47.5
Very close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	38–20	W	O51
Close	USA @ ULM 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-4	26–14	W	U49.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	JXST @ UTEP 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	30–27	W	O46.5
Close	ARMY @ AFA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	20–17	W	U48.5
Close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLLLW	4-6	40%	3-2	1-3
STAN LWLLW	3-7	30%	2-2	3-6

Venue/role: CAL away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OUOUO	5-5	50%	6-4
STAN UUOOU	5-5	50%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
STAN	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CAL 45–54 STAN (6 tied) STAN leads · 105 games since 1918 · STAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Stanford 21 @ California 24	CAL -15.5	STAN W
Nov 18 2023	California 27 @ Stanford 15	CAL -6.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+3.8 →−2.6▼ 6.4#77

STAN−3.7 →−6.0▼ 2.3#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CAL

Longer bar = better

STAN

#98

Offense

◀ CAL better

#126

#65

Defense

◀ CAL better

#104

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−0.6 #116

67 plays #64

Pace

◀ CAL faster

66 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #86	29.1 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #107	6.03 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.17 #108	Even
Success rate	40% #105	44% #95	Even

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	STAN off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #128	25.2 #76	CAL
Yards / play	4.70 #129	5.42 #59	CAL
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.09 #71	CAL
Success rate	36% #126	40% #54	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.9 #51	6.2 #105	13.1 #90	4.8 #96	5.8 #94	10.6 #103
STAN allowed	6.1 #86	9.3 #104	15.4 #101	7.2 #114	6.5 #67	13.7 #98

STAN scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.0 #90	5.4 #117	10.4 #111	2.3 #133	4.8 #119	7.1 #132
CAL allowed	5.5 #71	6.6 #49	12.1 #59	5.1 #55	6.2 #62	11.3 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.