Miami @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F15 mphgusts 30Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami

8-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

3-7 · Power #73

final

Closing spread

MIA -17.5

✓ VT W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 32–14 VT

✓ MIA (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -16.5

1 → MIA

CloseMIA -17.5

1 pt toward Miami

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -16.5 · closed MIA -17.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -19.5

model MIA -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (250 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -16.5

CloseMIA -17.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 17.5-point road favorite at VT, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 34–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.1 against an average line of 17.8; 48.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Very close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Very close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	41–16	W	O53
Very close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–13	L	U47
Close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWLLW	6-4	60%	1-1	5-4
VT LLWLL	2-7	22%	1-4	1-4

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; VT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUOU	4-6	40%	8-2
VT OUOUU	4-6	40%	3-7

Went over in Q4. Of 557 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
VT	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 27–15 VT MIA leads · 42 games since 1953 · MIA has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2024	Virginia Tech 34 @ Miami 38	MIA -17.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+19.7▲ 1.7#10

VT+6.8 →−1.5▼ 8.3#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MIA

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

◀ MIA better

#81

Defense

◀ MIA better

#117

+0.8 #13

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.5 #113

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ MIA faster

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #28	30.1 #110	MIA
Yards / play	6.33 #30	5.94 #107	MIA
PPA / play	+0.20 #36	+0.24 #129	MIA
Success rate	48% #18	46% #123	MIA

When VT has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	VT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #102	14.2 #7	MIA
Yards / play	5.46 #82	4.34 #8	MIA
PPA / play	+0.11 #68	−0.11 #5	MIA
Success rate	43% #72	35% #10	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.6 #54	9.6 #50	16.2 #47	9.3 #11	8.2 #35	17.5 #15
VT allowed	4.9 #57	9.1 #98	14.0 #86	6.8 #108	8.6 #121	15.4 #125

VT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	4.8 #96	6.8 #98	11.6 #101	5.0 #85	5.2 #106	10.2 #106
MIA allowed	2.7 #15	2.0 #1	4.7 #4	2.3 #8	6.6 #69	8.9 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.