Duke @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Duke

5-5 · Power #47

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

4-6 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

DUKE -6.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 30–23 UNC

✓ DUKE (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -6.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -6.5

no move

CloseDUKE -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -6.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -8

model DUKE -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (166 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -6.5

CloseDUKE -6.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 6.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 32–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 6.9; 45 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	20–10	W	U51
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	24–8	W	U47
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WLWLL	4-5	44%	3-2	3-4
UNC WWWLL	5-5	50%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: DUKE away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUOOU	7-3	70%	5-5
UNC UUUUO	3-7	30%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 621 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	7-3 70%
UNC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DUKE 38–64 UNC (4 tied) UNC leads · 106 games since 1922 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	North Carolina 20 @ Duke 21	UNC -1.5	DUKE W
Nov 11 2023	Duke 45 @ North Carolina 47	UNC -10	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+1.9 →+4.0▲ 2.1#53

UNC+2.3 →−5.7▼ 8.0#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

DUKE

Longer bar = better

UNC

#27

Offense

◀ DUKE better

#120

#109

Defense

UNC better ▶

#49

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ DUKE better

−0.2 #95

66 plays #84

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

59 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #31	22.0 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #21	4.93 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.12 #81	DUKE
Success rate	47% #28	40% #44	Even

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #123	29.6 #103	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #121	6.24 #121	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	+0.19 #117	Even
Success rate	38% #119	44% #96	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.8 #73	10.2 #41	16.0 #49	7.2 #39	10.2 #9	17.4 #16
UNC allowed	7.6 #113	5.6 #29	13.2 #77	4.2 #37	3.9 #16	8.1 #16

UNC scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.3 #109	4.2 #128	8.5 #125	4.4 #108	5.2 #109	9.6 #118
DUKE allowed	7.6 #113	8.8 #96	16.4 #111	5.7 #82	7.5 #102	13.2 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.