North Carolina @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff34°F4 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Carolina

4-7 · Power #89

final

Final

NC State

6-5 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -7

✓ NCSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 22–30 NCSU

✓ NCSU (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -7

CloseNCSU -7

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -7

no move

CloseNCSU -7

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -7 · unchangedmodel NCSU -12

model NCSU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (191 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -7

CloseNCSU -7

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 7-point home favorite against UNC, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NCSU won 42–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 7.6; 49.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5
Very close	ILL vs IU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	48–45	L	O43.5
Very close	UVA vs WAKE 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	9–16	L	U48.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	ASU vs WVU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-10	25–23	L	O46.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	45–13	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WWLLL	5-6	45%	3-2	3-5
NCSU LLWLW	5-6	45%	4-2	3-2

Venue/role: UNC away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UUUOO	4-7	36%	4-7
NCSU UOOUU	6-5	55%	6-5

Went over in Q4. Of 582 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNC 0–2 NCSU NCSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NCSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	NC State 35 @ North Carolina 30	UNC -2.5	NCSU W
Nov 25 2023	North Carolina 20 @ NC State 39	UNC -2.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+2.3 →−5.6▼ 7.9#88

NCSU+0.7 →+3.2▲ 2.5#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UNC

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#114

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#47

#51

Defense

◀ UNC better

#101

−0.2 #89

Turnovers

NCSU better ▶

0.0 #71

58 plays #135

Pace

NCSU faster ▶

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #121	29.7 #101	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #116	6.32 #125	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #110	+0.22 #126	Even
Success rate	39% #109	40% #53	NCSU

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #58	22.9 #51	Even
Yards / play	6.18 #35	4.90 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #33	+0.12 #81	NCSU
Success rate	43% #60	40% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.5 #102	4.1 #131	8.6 #124	4.7 #96	5.4 #107	10.1 #111
NCSU allowed	7.2 #107	9.3 #106	16.5 #110	7.3 #116	6.0 #54	13.3 #89

NCSU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	7.9 #27	8.7 #67	16.6 #43	6.9 #42	5.5 #101	12.5 #70
UNC allowed	7.5 #117	6.0 #32	13.5 #82	4.5 #41	4.3 #21	8.7 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.