Wake Forest @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

5-3 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

8-1 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

UVA -7.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 21–30 UVA

✗ UVA (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -6.5

CloseUVA -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -6.5

1 → UVA

CloseUVA -7.5

1 pt toward Virginia

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -6.5 · closed UVA -7.5 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -10.5

model UVA -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (186 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (78 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -6.5

CloseUVA -7.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 7.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 16–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 8.7; 49.2 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Very close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	24–7	W	U50
Very close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	UCF vs UTAH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	14–28	L	U46.5
Very close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	42–40	L	O52
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	45–13	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WWWWL	5-3	63%	2-1	3-2
UVA WWLLW	6-3	67%	4-1	4-2

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOOUU	4-4	50%	5-3
UVA OUUUU	5-4	56%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UVA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 0–1 UVA UVA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UVA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Virginia 31 @ Wake Forest 30	UVA -1.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →+0.2▲ 4.8#65

UVA−1.6 →+7.5▲ 9.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WAKE

Longer bar = better

UVA

#102

Offense

UVA better ▶

#39

#18

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#54

−0.4 #107

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+1.1 #6

66 plays #73

Pace

UVA faster ▶

74 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	WAKE off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #93	22.2 #52	UVA
Yards / play	5.68 #70	5.28 #54	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #119	+0.06 #57	UVA
Success rate	36% #124	40% #54	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #18	21.8 #43	UVA
Yards / play	5.91 #57	4.48 #12	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	44% #51	34% #6	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.9 #28	8.1 #77	16.0 #54	4.6 #102	2.9 #134	7.5 #130
UVA allowed	3.1 #26	8.4 #89	11.6 #54	6.4 #97	2.9 #5	9.3 #29

UVA scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	10.0 #10	11.2 #23	21.2 #10	7.6 #37	5.0 #107	12.6 #71
WAKE allowed	3.8 #38	4.1 #12	7.9 #12	6.6 #103	6.4 #66	13.0 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.