California @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

California

5-4 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

7-1 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

LOU -18.5

✓ CAL W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 16–35 LOU

✗ LOU (91%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -18.5

CloseLOU -18.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -18.5

no move

CloseLOU -18.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -18.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -22

model LOU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (99 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -18.5

CloseLOU -18.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as an 18.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 29–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 19.3; 57.7 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-20	31–24	L	O49.5
Very close	MICH vs PUR 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	21–16	L	U48.5
Very close	UGA vs UK 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-19.5	35–14	W	P49
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	SMU vs NAVY 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20.25	59–14	W	O46
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Very close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL WLLLL	3-6	33%	2-2	2-3
LOU WLWLW	3-5	38%	0-5	2-5

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UOUOU	4-5	44%	5-4
LOU OUUOU	4-4	50%	7-1

Went over in OT. Of 566 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LOU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+3.8 →−3.7▼ 7.5#78

LOU+11.2 →+12.4▲ 1.2#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CAL

Longer bar = better

LOU

#104

Offense

LOU better ▶

#51

#65

Defense

LOU better ▶

#14

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+0.4 #37

66 plays #69

Pace

Even

66 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	CAL off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #90	20.8 #36	LOU
Yards / play	5.01 #115	4.45 #9	LOU
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	−0.15 #3	LOU
Success rate	40% #111	35% #9	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #30	25.1 #75	LOU
Yards / play	6.14 #39	5.46 #65	LOU
PPA / play	+0.10 #75	+0.10 #72	Even
Success rate	44% #59	40% #46	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.9 #51	5.8 #112	12.7 #90	4.7 #101	6.4 #74	11.1 #92
LOU allowed	6.6 #101	5.1 #21	11.8 #57	3.4 #22	4.9 #32	8.3 #19

LOU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #28	9.8 #52	17.6 #35	6.4 #60	9.4 #25	15.8 #32
CAL allowed	5.3 #63	6.7 #56	12.0 #61	4.9 #53	6.6 #70	11.4 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.