SMU @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

SMU

6-3 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

1-8 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

SMU -10.5

✓ SMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 32–22 BC

✓ SMU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -12.5

CloseSMU -10.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -12.5

2 → BC

CloseSMU -10.5

2 pts toward Boston College

Total

Open51.5

▲ 3

Close54.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -12.5 · closed SMU -10.5 · moved 2 toward BCmodel SMU -10.5 matches the line

model SMU -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 51% (73 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (189 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -12.5

CloseSMU -10.5

Total51.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 10.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 45–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 54.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.8 against an average line of 10.3; 70 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ORST 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	38–41	L	O56.5
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	49–46	L	O52
Very close	TENN @ UK 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	56–34	W	O55
Close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	24–31	L	U58
Close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	30–16	W	U53
Close	ASU @ ARIZ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	49–7	W	O53.5
Close	MD @ IU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-11	38–33	L	O63.5
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	38–45	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LWWLW	3-6	33%	1-3	1-5
BC LLLWW	4-5	44%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UUOUU	2-7	22%	6-3
BC OUOOU	6-3	67%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 537 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
BC	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SMU 1–1 BC Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Boston College 28 @ SMU 38	SMU -19.5	BC W
Dec 28 2023	SMU 14 @ Boston College 23	SMU -13.5	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+7.5▼ 5.0#42

BC+1.8 →−4.8▼ 6.6#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SMU

Longer bar = better

#69

Offense

◀ SMU better

#94

#33

Defense

◀ SMU better

#103

+0.9 #15

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

−0.8 #121

66 plays #87

Pace

BC faster ▶

69 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #54	33.3 #124	SMU
Yards / play	5.92 #55	6.28 #126	SMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #65	+0.18 #106	SMU
Success rate	40% #101	41% #57	BC

When BC has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	BC off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #85	21.2 #38	SMU
Yards / play	5.20 #102	5.27 #50	SMU
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	−0.07 #9	SMU
Success rate	41% #87	39% #34	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	4.9 #94	10.6 #36	15.4 #63	5.7 #74	8.2 #42	13.9 #56
BC allowed	6.3 #92	12.1 #135	18.4 #127	6.4 #94	6.8 #80	13.2 #92

BC scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.4 #106	9.6 #53	14.0 #78	4.1 #108	5.3 #98	9.4 #113
SMU allowed	3.0 #22	6.4 #49	9.4 #27	3.3 #23	7.3 #94	10.7 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.