Kent State @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Wed, Nov 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

3-5 · Power #132

final

Final

Ball State

3-5 · Power #133

▲ winner

Closing spread

BALL -3.5

✓ BALL W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 23–27 BALL

✓ BALL (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -3.5

CloseBALL -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBALL -3.5

no move

CloseBALL -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BALL -3.5 · unchangedmodel BALL -5.5

model BALL -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (281 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -3.5

CloseBALL -3.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BALL as a 3.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.8; 56.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	21–36	L	O53.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	AKR vs KENT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–27	W	O39.75
Close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-5	13–9	L	U48
Close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	UTEP vs KENN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	43–35	W	O42.5
Close	LT vs MTSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	48–21	W	O47.5
Close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Close	EMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–10	W	U43.5
Close	TEM vs TLSA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LWWLW	4-3	57%	1-3	3-3
BALL WWLWL	5-3	63%	3-0	2-0

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OUUOU	4-3	57%	3-5
BALL OUUOU	3-5	38%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
BALL	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KENT 0–2 BALL BALL leads · 2 games since 2023 · BALL has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Ball State 37 @ Kent State 35	BALL -3.5	KENT W
Nov 18 2023	Kent State 3 @ Ball State 34	BALL -10.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−26.4 →−21.2▲ 5.2#133

BALL−15.8 →−18.5▼ 2.7#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

KENT

Longer bar = better

BALL

#129

Offense

Even

#129

#122

Defense

BALL better ▶

#106

−0.3 #90

Turnovers

◀ KENT better

−0.4 #106

58 plays #137

Pace

Even

59 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BALL defense

	KENT off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	18.6 #125	29.8 #105	Even
Yards / play	4.64 #132	6.00 #109	BALL
PPA / play	0.00 #124	+0.16 #101	BALL
Success rate	35% #134	45% #109	BALL

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #131	36.5 #131	Even
Yards / play	4.64 #133	6.29 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.22 #125	Even
Success rate	35% #131	45% #107	KENT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.8 #101	3.0 #134	7.8 #128	6.1 #67	4.8 #112	10.9 #97
BALL allowed	10.1 #132	6.1 #45	16.3 #109	6.0 #80	7.5 #101	13.5 #100

BALL scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.5 #121	3.5 #133	7.0 #132	4.5 #102	4.9 #108	9.4 #115
KENT allowed	10.0 #130	10.8 #124	20.8 #134	10.9 #134	4.9 #36	15.8 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.