Georgia Southern @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Thu, Nov 6, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

3-5 · Power #105

▲ winner

Final

App State

4-4 · Power #115

final

Closing spread

APP -4.5

✓ GASO W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 28–33 APP

✗ APP (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -5.5

CloseAPP -4.5

Total62.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -5.5

1 → GASO

CloseAPP -4.5

1 pt toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open62.5

▼ 1

Close61.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -5.5 · closed APP -4.5 · moved 1 toward GASOmodel APP -8

model APP -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (204 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (267 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -5.5

CloseAPP -4.5

Total62.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 4.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 25–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 61.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 4.3; 43.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	GASO vs APP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	29–20	W	U60.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	NMSU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	13–7	W	U55.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Close	UNLV vs UNM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3.5	35–40	L	O61.5
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WLLWL	3-5	38%	0-4	0-4
APP LWWLW	4-4	50%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OUOOU	6-2	75%	3-5
APP OUOOU	4-3	57%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 47% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
APP	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GASO 10–14 APP APP leads · 24 games since 2003 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	App State 20 @ Georgia Southern 29	GASO -2.5	GASO W
Nov 25 2023	Georgia Southern 27 @ App State 55	APP -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−5.7 →−12.1▼ 6.4#114

APP−6.4 →−8.9▼ 2.5#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

GASO

Longer bar = better

APP

#66

Offense

Even

#79

#133

Defense

APP better ▶

#76

+0.4 #44

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−0.5 #110

67 plays #67

Pace

APP faster ▶

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #67	27.6 #93	GASO
Yards / play	5.43 #91	5.38 #63	APP
PPA / play	+0.16 #51	+0.09 #62	Even
Success rate	44% #54	43% #84	GASO

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #75	35.4 #130	APP
Yards / play	5.64 #74	6.54 #131	APP
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.28 #134	APP
Success rate	42% #76	50% #135	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.6 #36	7.3 #86	14.9 #68	6.1 #68	7.8 #48	13.9 #57
APP allowed	5.1 #64	6.3 #46	11.4 #49	8.1 #122	8.1 #112	16.3 #127

APP scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	7.4 #40	6.4 #103	13.8 #80	8.5 #25	4.8 #113	13.3 #64
GASO allowed	10.0 #132	10.6 #123	20.6 #134	9.6 #129	5.1 #43	14.8 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.