App State @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

App State

4-5 · Power #115

final

Final

James Madison

8-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -19.5

✓ JMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 14–34 JMU

✓ JMU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19.5

CloseJMU -19.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -19.5

no move

CloseJMU -19.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -19.5 · unchangedmodel JMU -21

model JMU -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 49% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19.5

CloseJMU -19.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 19.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 58–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 19.4; 57.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & spread	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Very close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WWLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	1-1
JMU LLWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	5-3

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UOOUU	4-4	50%	4-5
JMU UUOOO	4-5	44%	8-1

Went over in Q4. Of 546 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
JMU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

APP 7–3 JMU APP leads · 10 games since 1980 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	James Madison 20 @ App State 34	JMU -6.5	APP W
Nov 18 2023	App State 26 @ James Madison 23	JMU -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−6.4 →−9.8▼ 3.4#105

JMU−2.2 →+7.1▲ 9.3#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

APP

Longer bar = better

JMU

#77

Offense

JMU better ▶

#31

#86

Defense

JMU better ▶

#10

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

0.0 #75

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ APP faster

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	APP off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #75	16.9 #12	JMU
Yards / play	5.65 #70	4.45 #8	JMU
PPA / play	+0.09 #88	−0.04 #15	JMU
Success rate	42% #75	32% #4	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #23	27.3 #90	JMU
Yards / play	6.21 #32	5.52 #72	JMU
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.12 #87	JMU
Success rate	46% #32	44% #96	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

APP scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	6.6 #57	6.0 #108	12.6 #92	8.2 #24	5.8 #88	14.0 #50
JMU allowed	3.3 #29	8.4 #93	11.8 #59	3.2 #20	1.9 #1	5.1 #5

JMU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	7.3 #36	9.3 #54	16.7 #44	10.4 #6	7.7 #47	18.1 #13
APP allowed	5.6 #72	6.7 #55	12.2 #65	7.6 #117	7.6 #108	15.1 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.