South Alabama @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

2-7 · Power #102

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

3-6 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

USA -4.5

✓ USA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 28–23 ULM

✓ USA (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -3.5

CloseUSA -4.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -3.5

1 → USA

CloseUSA -4.5

1 pt toward South Alabama

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -3.5 · closed USA -4.5 · moved 1 toward USAmodel USA -6.5

model USA -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (143 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -3.5

CloseUSA -4.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 4.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 26–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.2 against an average line of 4.3; 55.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	41–34	W	O52
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	WSU @ ORST 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U47.5
Close	RICE @ UAB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	14–40	L	O52.25
Close	USA @ GAST 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	38–31	W	O54
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLLWL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-5
ULM LLLLL	2-7	22%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOUOO	6-3	67%	2-7
ULM OUOOU	5-4	56%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ULM	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USA 2–0 ULM USA leads · 2 games since 2023 · USA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	UL Monroe 17 @ South Alabama 46	USA -7.5	USA W
Oct 7 2023	South Alabama 55 @ UL Monroe 7	USA -10	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−9.6▼ 7.3#103

ULM−12.3 →−17.7▼ 5.4#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USA

Longer bar = better

ULM

#83

Offense

◀ USA better

#120

#107

Defense

Even

#97

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−1.0 #134

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ USA faster

61 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	24.9 #86	32.9 #123	USA
Yards / play	5.51 #84	5.93 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.15 #100	USA
Success rate	42% #85	41% #64	ULM

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #132	29.7 #103	USA
Yards / play	5.22 #101	5.72 #89	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.21 #123	Even
Success rate	36% #127	45% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USA scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	7.3 #36	4.9 #121	12.2 #97	5.2 #82	7.4 #54	12.7 #70
ULM allowed	9.4 #131	7.8 #81	17.2 #122	7.6 #117	8.1 #114	15.7 #128

ULM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.9 #114	4.7 #123	8.6 #126	3.9 #117	3.6 #129	7.4 #129
USA allowed	7.3 #111	7.7 #79	15.0 #96	6.4 #100	7.4 #103	13.9 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.