UL Monroe @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

3-7 · Power #130

final

Final

Texas State

4-6 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -20.5

✓ ULM W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 19–40 TXST

✓ TXST (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -18.5

CloseTXST -20.5

Total55.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -18.5

2 → TXST

CloseTXST -20.5

2 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 5

Close60.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -18.5 · closed TXST -20.5 · moved 2 toward TXSTmodel TXST -21.5

model TXST -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 49% (93 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (238 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -18.5

CloseTXST -20.5

Total55.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 20.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 31–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.4 against an average line of 19.7; 65 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TXST vs ULM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	21–20	L	U64.5
Close	TXST vs GAST 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-23	44–52	L	O59.5
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	WMU vs KENT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	52–21	W	O61
Close	MSST vs MASS 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	45–20	W	O59
Close	ARIZ vs UTEP 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.25	31–10	W	U57.25
Close	UNT vs FIU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	52–14	W	O63.25
Close	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Loose	USF vs TLSA 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-17	63–30	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LLLLL	2-8	20%	1-4	1-6
TXST LLLLW	3-7	30%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOUU	5-5	50%	3-7
TXST OOOOU	6-4	60%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
TXST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ULM 6–8 TXST TXST leads · 14 games since 2000 · TXST has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Texas State 38 @ UL Monroe 17	TXST -9.5	TXST W
Oct 14 2023	UL Monroe 20 @ Texas State 21	TXST -19.5	ULM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−18.7▼ 6.4#130

TXST+1.6 →−1.9▼ 3.5#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ULM

Longer bar = better

TXST

#126

Offense

TXST better ▶

#23

#95

Defense

◀ ULM better

#110

−0.9 #128

Turnovers

TXST better ▶

−0.4 #109

60 plays #133

Pace

TXST faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #133	32.7 #126	Even
Yards / play	5.10 #110	5.79 #96	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #127	+0.19 #113	Even
Success rate	34% #133	44% #104	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #21	32.2 #121	TXST
Yards / play	6.69 #19	5.79 #95	TXST
PPA / play	+0.26 #17	+0.14 #96	TXST
Success rate	46% #33	41% #67	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.9 #97	4.2 #129	9.1 #122	3.5 #120	3.2 #131	6.7 #132
TXST allowed	5.1 #63	10.6 #125	15.7 #102	6.9 #111	8.1 #113	15.0 #113

TXST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.8 #18	10.8 #24	19.6 #16	4.7 #98	10.0 #11	14.7 #40
ULM allowed	8.5 #128	7.7 #80	16.2 #108	8.1 #124	7.9 #105	16.0 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.