UL Monroe @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F13 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UL Monroe

3-8 · Power #130

final

Final

Louisiana

5-6 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -10.5

✓ ULM W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 18–29 UL

✓ UL (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -13.5

CloseUL -10.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -13.5

3 → ULM

CloseUL -10.5

3 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -13.5 · closed UL -10.5 · moved 3 toward ULMmodel UL -11.5

model UL -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 43% (142 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (209 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -13.5

CloseUL -10.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 10.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 47.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 9.8; 43.6 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs GAST 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	31–19	W	U51
Very close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Very close	SDSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-11	0–6	L	U48.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	CSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-8.5	24–10	W	U47
Very close	OHIO vs AKR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	30–10	W	U46
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-10	16–24	L	U48.5
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12	23–22	L	U55
Very close	BALL vs KENT 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	34–3	W	U42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LLLLW	3-8	27%	2-4	2-6
UL LLWWW	6-5	55%	3-2	1-2

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; UL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OOUUU	5-6	45%	3-8
UL UOOOO	7-4	64%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 541 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ULM 16–25 UL UL leads · 41 games since 1976 · UL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Louisiana 37 @ UL Monroe 23	UL -8.5	UL W
Nov 25 2023	UL Monroe 21 @ Louisiana 52	UL -12.5	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−12.3 →−18.5▼ 6.2#131

UL−2.6 →−10.5▼ 7.9#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ULM

Longer bar = better

#126

Offense

UL better ▶

#89

#98

Defense

Even

#107

−0.7 #123

Turnovers

UL better ▶

0.0 #75

60 plays #134

Pace

UL faster ▶

65 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	15.6 #133	30.3 #110	UL
Yards / play	5.08 #111	5.92 #101	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #126	+0.14 #89	UL
Success rate	35% #132	47% #128	Even

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #75	32.1 #122	UL
Yards / play	5.35 #93	5.78 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #85	+0.16 #107	UL
Success rate	40% #104	42% #74	ULM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.5 #106	3.8 #133	8.3 #127	3.8 #115	3.5 #130	7.4 #131
UL allowed	5.3 #67	11.9 #134	17.2 #115	5.3 #63	6.9 #79	12.2 #67

UL scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.3 #87	11.8 #12	17.1 #37	3.3 #124	5.3 #107	8.5 #126
ULM allowed	7.7 #118	7.3 #61	15.0 #96	8.6 #128	8.5 #114	17.1 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.