Georgia State @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

1-10 · Power #125

final

Final

Old Dominion

8-3 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

ODU -28.5

✓ GAST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 14–42 ODU

✓ ODU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -26.5

CloseODU -28.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -26.5

2 → ODU

CloseODU -28.5

2 pts toward Old Dominion

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -26.5 · closed ODU -28.5 · moved 2 toward ODUmodel ODU -26

model ODU -26

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 58% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (243 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -26.5

CloseODU -28.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 28.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ODU won 27–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.7 against an average line of 27.1; 57.7 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Very close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Very close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Very close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	BOIS vs USU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-28	62–30	W	O66.5
Close	ECU vs CLT 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-28	48–22	L	O56.5
Close	BOIS vs UNM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	42–14	W	U59
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	32–15	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST LLLLL	1-10	9%	0-5	1-9
ODU LLWWW	7-4	64%	3-2	5-3

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; ODU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OOOUU	6-5	55%	1-10
ODU OUUUU	5-6	45%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	1-9 10%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
ODU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GAST 0–2 ODU ODU leads · 2 games since 2023 · ODU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Old Dominion 21 @ Georgia State 14	GAST -2.5	ODU W
Nov 25 2023	Georgia State 24 @ Old Dominion 25	ODU -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−9.1 →−17.0▼ 7.9#129

ODU−5.3 →+4.4▲ 9.7#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

GAST

Longer bar = better

ODU

#95

Offense

ODU better ▶

#20

#131

Defense

ODU better ▶

#28

−1.1 #131

Turnovers

ODU better ▶

−0.2 #94

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ GAST faster

66 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	GAST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #117	20.1 #30	ODU
Yards / play	5.50 #85	4.84 #21	ODU
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	−0.07 #10	ODU
Success rate	41% #86	40% #52	ODU

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: ODU offense

	ODU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #30	38.8 #136	ODU
Yards / play	7.02 #10	6.53 #132	ODU
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.26 #133	ODU
Success rate	48% #18	46% #124	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.8 #43	4.4 #126	11.2 #105	4.6 #95	4.8 #120	9.5 #116
ODU allowed	2.5 #9	4.6 #13	7.2 #9	6.2 #90	6.7 #71	12.9 #84

ODU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	9.8 #9	10.3 #36	20.1 #11	7.5 #35	5.6 #96	13.1 #62
GAST allowed	7.9 #120	10.5 #124	18.5 #125	8.8 #129	11.5 #135	20.4 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.