Old Dominion vs South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (StaffDNA Cure Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 17, 2025, 5:00 PM ESTStaffDNA Cure Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff70°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

9-3 · Power #46

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

9-3 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

USF -4

✓ ODU W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 28–32 USF

✗ USF (63%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -7.5

CloseUSF -4

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -7.5

3.5 → ODU

CloseUSF -4

3.5 pts toward Old Dominion

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -7.5 · closed USF -4 · moved 3.5 toward ODUmodel USF -8

model USF -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 52%, covered 40% (66 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -7.5

CloseUSF -4

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against ODU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 4.4; 58.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	PITT vs TOL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	46–48	L	O48.5
Loose	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Loose	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-8	45–51	L	O56
Loose	USA vs WMU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-6	30–23	W	U54.5
Loose	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Loose	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	27–35	L	O49
Loose	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ODU LWWWL	7-5	58%	—	2-1
USF LWLWW	8-4	67%	—	5-3

Venue/role: ODU neutral, as underdog; USF neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UUUUU	5-7	42%	9-3
USF OOOUU	7-5	58%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−5.3 →+4.0▲ 9.3#54

USF−3.9 →+11.0▲ 14.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ODU

Longer bar = better

USF

#24

Offense

USF better ▶

#24

Defense

Even

#36

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.8 #16

67 plays #64

Pace

USF faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #29	23.3 #57	ODU
Yards / play	6.87 #13	5.16 #37	ODU
PPA / play	+0.21 #29	+0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	47% #24	38% #25	Even

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #2	19.3 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #5	4.79 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	−0.07 #8	Even
Success rate	48% #19	40% #46	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	9.0 #13	10.3 #30	19.3 #15	8.3 #19	5.2 #109	13.4 #53
USF allowed	6.3 #92	5.9 #30	12.2 #65	2.5 #9	8.7 #120	11.2 #53

USF scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.3 #22	11.8 #11	20.1 #11	12.3 #2	10.7 #4	22.9 #1
ODU allowed	2.3 #8	5.1 #15	7.4 #9	5.7 #73	6.2 #57	11.8 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.