Florida International vs UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Dec 26, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTSERVPRO First Responder Bowl · Neutral site

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Florida International

7-5 · Power #109

final

Final

UTSA

6-6 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -7.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 23–31 UTSA

✓ UTSA (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -8.5

CloseUTSA -7.5

Total57.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTSA -8.5

1 → FIU

CloseUTSA -7.5

1 pt toward Florida International

Total

Open57.5

▲ 6

Close63.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTSA -8.5 · closed UTSA -7.5 · moved 1 toward FIUmodel UTSA -10.5

model UTSA -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 38% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (320 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTSA -8.5

CloseUTSA -7.5

Total57.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against FIU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 57–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 6.8; 58.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7	53–29	W	O67
Close	NCSU vs ECU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Close	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Loose	GASO vs BUFF 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-6	21–23	L	U66.5
Loose	BOIS vs UNT 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-11.75	35–32	L	O63
Loose	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Loose	MEM vs WVU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-5	42–37	P	O60.5
Loose	KU vs UNLV 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-8.5	49–36	W	O64.5
Loose	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Loose	TCU vs UL 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–3	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
FIU LWWWW	8-4	67%	—	4-3
UTSA WLWWL	6-6	50%	—	3-4

Venue/role: FIU neutral, as underdog; UTSA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU UOOUO	6-6	50%	7-5
UTSA OOUOO	9-3	75%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 169 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UTSA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−10.0▲ 1.4#103

UTSA−2.5 →−0.3▲ 2.2#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

FIU

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#64

Offense

UTSA better ▶

#35

#76

Defense

Even

#86

+0.2 #57

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #45

70 plays #35

Pace

◀ FIU faster

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: FIU offense

	FIU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #54	29.6 #101	FIU
Yards / play	5.87 #52	5.92 #102	FIU
PPA / play	+0.12 #64	+0.14 #89	FIU
Success rate	41% #84	40% #53	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #21	27.8 #90	UTSA
Yards / play	6.05 #38	5.85 #94	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.17 #40	+0.05 #48	Even
Success rate	45% #40	42% #70	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.4 #51	8.2 #74	14.6 #67	7.0 #38	7.1 #60	14.1 #47
UTSA allowed	4.3 #45	8.8 #91	13.1 #78	8.9 #130	7.6 #93	16.5 #130

UTSA scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.4 #29	10.6 #23	18.0 #22	7.9 #25	7.8 #41	15.8 #26
FIU allowed	7.2 #108	9.0 #97	16.2 #106	5.2 #62	6.4 #65	11.6 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.