Memphis vs NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Dec 19, 2025, 2:30 PM ESTUnion Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

8-4 · Power #61

final

Final

NC State

7-5 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -3.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 27–30 NCSU

✓ NCSU (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -5.5

CloseNCSU -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -5.5

2 → MEM

CloseNCSU -3.5

2 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -5.5 · closed NCSU -3.5 · moved 2 toward MEMmodel NCSU -1

model NCSU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (48 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (213 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -5.5

CloseNCSU -3.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against MEM, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 4.2; 50.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE vs MIZ 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.75	27–17	W	U58.75
Very close	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Very close	USA vs WKU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.75	23–44	L	O58
Close	TTU vs CAL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–14	W	U55.5
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	TXST vs RICE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	45–21	W	O59
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	27–35	L	O49
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	TCU vs UL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	34–3	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MEM WWLLL	8-4	67%	—	2-1
NCSU LWLWW	6-6	50%	—	4-2

Venue/role: MEM neutral, as underdog; NCSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOOOU	6-6	50%	8-4
NCSU OOUUO	7-5	58%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.2 →+3.1▲ 0.9#58

NCSU+0.7 →+4.0▲ 3.3#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MEM

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#25

Offense

◀ MEM better

#39

#65

Defense

◀ MEM better

#95

+0.8 #16

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

+0.1 #69

68 plays #58

Pace

◀ MEM faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #19	28.8 #94	MEM
Yards / play	6.20 #30	6.18 #119	MEM
PPA / play	+0.24 #18	+0.21 #120	MEM
Success rate	46% #34	40% #45	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #45	22.5 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.11 #36	5.46 #58	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.21 #26	+0.13 #82	NCSU
Success rate	44% #50	42% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.8 #29	12.1 #9	19.8 #12	5.8 #70	8.9 #25	14.8 #37
NCSU allowed	6.6 #100	9.3 #104	15.9 #105	6.9 #106	6.0 #55	12.9 #84

NCSU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	8.4 #18	9.2 #55	17.6 #31	6.3 #51	6.3 #77	12.6 #67
MEM allowed	5.4 #72	9.9 #113	15.3 #101	3.7 #28	3.5 #10	7.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.