Penn State vs Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTBad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff26°F7 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Penn State

6-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

7-5 · Power #34

final

Closing spread

CLEM -2.5

✓ PSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 25–26 CLEM

✗ CLEM (53%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -1.5

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -1.5

4 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -2.5

4 pts toward Clemson

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -1.5 · closed CLEM -2.5 · moved 4 toward CLEMmodel PSU -5

model PSU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (162 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -1.5

CloseCLEM -2.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against PSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 22–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3; 46.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & total	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	WASH vs LOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	34–35	L	O50.5
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	MSST vs ILL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	19–10	W	U46.5
Close	ISU vs ASU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-1.5	19–45	L	O51
Close	RUTG vs MIA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2.75	31–24	W	O40.75
Close	AFA vs JMU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	31–21	W	O44
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Loose	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & total	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Loose	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
PSU LWWWL	4-8	33%	—	2-1
CLEM LWWLW	5-7	42%	—	3-7

Venue/role: PSU neutral, as underdog; CLEM neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OOUOO	9-3	75%	6-6
CLEM OUUUU	4-8	33%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 23. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
CLEM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+13.6▼ 6.8#21

CLEM+15.2 →+9.1▼ 6.1#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PSU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#36

Offense

◀ PSU better

#58

#53

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#35

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

+0.2 #67

62 plays #126

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #36	20.4 #31	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #56	5.33 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #31	+0.03 #38	Even
Success rate	48% #19	37% #20	Even

When CLEM has the ball

Even matchup

	CLEM off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #61	21.4 #39	PSU
Yards / play	5.93 #47	5.29 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #61	+0.06 #55	Even
Success rate	43% #62	42% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.5 #79	9.3 #51	14.8 #63	6.0 #63	10.3 #6	16.3 #21
CLEM allowed	4.8 #49	7.4 #68	12.2 #66	4.0 #30	4.3 #19	8.3 #15

CLEM scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	6.9 #37	10.9 #22	17.8 #24	4.4 #100	6.4 #75	10.8 #97
PSU allowed	4.3 #42	6.1 #35	10.3 #35	4.3 #38	5.8 #48	10.0 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.