Central Michigan vs Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (GameAbove Sports Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Dec 26, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTGameAbove Sports Bowl · Neutral site

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Central Michigan

7-5 · Power #103

final

Final

Northwestern

6-6 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -13.5

✓ NU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 15–29 NU

✓ NU (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -12.5

CloseNU -13.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -12.5

1 → NU

CloseNU -13.5

1 pt toward Northwestern

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -12.5 · closed NU -13.5 · moved 1 toward NUmodel NU -13

model NU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (271 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -12.5

CloseNU -13.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 13.5-point neutral-site favorite against CMU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 9.8; 47.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs LT 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–6	W	U44.5
Close	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Close	MRSH vs CONN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-12.25	28–14	W	P42
Loose	UTAH vs NU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	7–14	L	U44
Loose	JMU vs WKU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–17	W	U50.5
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	23–25	L	O47
Loose	ILL vs NU 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & season form	-9	38–28	W	O43.5
Loose	ND vs NAVY 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & total	-17	35–32	L	O40.5
Loose	PITT vs TOL 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	46–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
CMU WWWWL	8-4	67%	—	3-3
NU WLWLP	7-4-1	64%	—	3-2

Venue/role: CMU neutral, as underdog; NU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OOOUU	7-5	58%	7-5
NU OOOOU	6-6	50%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NU	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−14.4 →−9.5▲ 4.9#100

NU−2.5 →+2.5▲ 5.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CMU

Longer bar = better

#82

Offense

Even

#86

#43

Defense

◀ CMU better

#81

+0.7 #16

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

−0.3 #104

62 plays #125

Pace

NU faster ▶

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #95	20.9 #35	NU
Yards / play	5.44 #88	5.75 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #53	+0.14 #87	CMU
Success rate	41% #93	45% #116	CMU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	NU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #105	22.7 #51	CMU
Yards / play	5.44 #87	5.42 #55	CMU
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	−0.02 #21	CMU
Success rate	43% #58	39% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	6.9 #36	7.9 #83	14.8 #63	4.8 #93	4.2 #127	9.0 #119
NU allowed	2.9 #17	8.0 #80	10.9 #41	5.4 #72	4.6 #23	10.0 #37

NU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.8 #98	6.5 #103	11.3 #104	5.1 #90	6.2 #85	11.3 #93
CMU allowed	3.1 #19	7.3 #65	10.4 #35	5.8 #77	6.5 #67	12.3 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.