USC vs TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Valero Alamo Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 30, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTValero Alamo Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

USC

9-3 · Power #12

final

Final

TCU

8-4 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -4.5

✓ TCU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 34–29 TCU

✗ USC (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -5.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -5.5

1 → TCU

CloseUSC -4.5

1 pt toward TCU

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -5.5 · closed USC -4.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel USC -10.5

model USC -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 44% (41 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (321 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -5.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 4.5-point neutral-site favorite against TCU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 5.6; 54.4 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–37	L	O61.5
Close	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-7	24–20	L	U50.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-7.25	44–41	L	O52
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	UVA vs DUKE 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form	-3.5	20–27	L	U58.5
Close	TEX vs WASH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3	20–27	L	U67
Close	TCU vs UL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-9.5	34–3	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USC LWLLL	5-7	42%	—	4-6
TCU LLLWW	5-7	42%	—	0-2

Venue/role: USC neutral, as favorite; TCU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UOUOU	6-6	50%	9-3
TCU UUOUO	6-6	50%	8-4

Went over in OT. Of 526 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
TCU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+17.6▲ 3.6#12

TCU+7.9 →+8.1▲ 0.2#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

USC

Longer bar = better

TCU

Offense

◀ USC better

#40

#74

Defense

Even

#64

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ USC better

0.0 #72

65 plays #89

Pace

TCU faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #12	25.2 #72	USC
Yards / play	7.21 #5	5.47 #61	USC
PPA / play	+0.29 #9	+0.08 #63	USC
Success rate	50% #7	41% #59	USC

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #41	22.4 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #30	5.57 #67	TCU
PPA / play	+0.16 #42	+0.07 #58	Even
Success rate	44% #48	45% #122	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USC scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	7.8 #26	9.7 #41	17.4 #28	9.3 #9	9.8 #12	19.1 #7
TCU allowed	3.3 #24	7.8 #73	11.1 #43	5.1 #59	9.0 #124	14.1 #102

TCU scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.7 #42	9.9 #37	16.6 #38	6.1 #61	8.1 #38	14.2 #44
USC allowed	5.4 #72	7.8 #73	13.2 #79	5.3 #69	3.9 #15	9.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.