New Mexico vs Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Rate Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Dec 26, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTRate Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Mexico

9-3 · Power #81

final

Final

Minnesota

7-5 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -1.5

✓ MINN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 23–25 MINN

✓ MINN (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -3

CloseMINN -1.5

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -3

1.5 → UNM

CloseMINN -1.5

1.5 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open49.5

▼ 5

Close44.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -3 · closed MINN -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward UNMmodel MINN -3.5

model MINN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (57 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 62% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -3

CloseMINN -1.5

Total49.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against UNM, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MINN won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 3.6; 48.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	M-OH vs CSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	43–17	W	O42.5
Close	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–35	L	O49
Close	NIU vs FRES 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–20	W	O40.5
Close	PITT vs TOL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	46–48	L	O48.5
Close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5
Close	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNM WWLWW	7-5	58%	—	4-2
MINN LLLWW	3-8	27%	—	0-5

Venue/role: UNM neutral, as underdog; MINN neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM UOUUU	5-7	42%	9-3
MINN OUOOU	7-5	58%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MINN	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−13.7 →−3.2▲ 10.5#78

MINN+8.6 →+0.1▼ 8.5#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

UNM

Longer bar = better

MINN

#65

Offense

◀ UNM better

#100

#49

Defense

◀ UNM better

#90

−0.5 #111

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+0.6 #22

63 plays #119

Pace

◀ UNM faster

60 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #65	23.4 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #48	5.65 #78	UNM
PPA / play	+0.11 #70	+0.16 #107	UNM
Success rate	42% #77	45% #117	UNM

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	MINN off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #99	22.5 #50	UNM
Yards / play	4.98 #120	5.33 #50	UNM
PPA / play	+0.09 #79	+0.04 #46	UNM
Success rate	40% #100	40% #51	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.3 #104	11.6 #15	15.9 #49	3.6 #117	7.9 #40	11.5 #88
MINN allowed	6.0 #84	7.1 #59	13.1 #77	4.7 #48	5.4 #37	10.1 #40

MINN scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.8 #117	9.6 #46	13.3 #84	4.8 #93	4.6 #122	9.4 #114
UNM allowed	3.4 #26	9.1 #98	12.5 #67	4.7 #48	5.3 #34	10.0 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.