UNLV vs Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 23, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTScooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

UNLV

10-3 · Power #74

final

Final

Ohio

8-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -6.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 34–28 OHIO

✗ UNLV (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -4.5

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total62.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -4.5

2 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -6.5

2 pts toward UNLV

Total

Open62.5

▲ 2

Close64.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -4.5 · closed UNLV -6.5 · moved 2 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -2.5

model UNLV -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 38% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (256 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -4.5

CloseUNLV -6.5

Total62.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 17–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 5.2; 56.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Very close	NCSU vs ECU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Very close	GASO vs BUFF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	21–23	L	U66.5
Very close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O58
Close	ECU vs CCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-7	53–29	W	O67
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	MEM vs WVU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-5	42–37	P	O60.5
Close	USF vs SJSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	41–39	W	O66.5
Close	OHIO vs JXST 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	29–6	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNLV WLWWL	7-6	54%	—	6-4
OHIO LWLLL	6-6	50%	—	3-1

Venue/role: UNLV neutral, as favorite; OHIO neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUUOU	6-7	46%	10-3
OHIO UUUOO	6-6	50%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 48 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 44% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
OHIO	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−0.9▼ 6.3#72

OHIO−3.2 →−3.3▼ 0.1#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

UNLV

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#16

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#46

#105

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#67

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.2 #84

66 plays #73

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #15	22.9 #52	UNLV
Yards / play	6.92 #11	5.88 #97	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.26 #14	+0.06 #58	UNLV
Success rate	47% #22	41% #62	UNLV

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #59	28.8 #95	OHIO
Yards / play	6.16 #33	6.40 #128	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.16 #48	+0.15 #96	OHIO
Success rate	45% #43	44% #101	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	5.5 #80	13.8 #1	19.2 #14	6.8 #40	9.4 #18	16.2 #24
OHIO allowed	5.4 #71	5.2 #17	10.6 #37	4.3 #39	8.0 #105	12.3 #69

OHIO scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.3 #57	8.9 #60	15.3 #57	6.3 #55	7.2 #58	13.4 #54
UNLV allowed	7.6 #118	7.6 #70	15.2 #97	6.1 #89	7.3 #86	13.4 #95

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.