UNLV @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Fri, Dec 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff40°F8 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

10-2 · Power #74

final

Final

Boise State

8-4 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -6

✓ BOIS W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 27–33 BOIS

✓ BOIS (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -1.5

CloseBOIS -6

Total56.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -1.5

4.5 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -6

4.5 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open56.5

▲ 3

Close59.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -1.5 · closed BOIS -6 · moved 4.5 toward BOISmodel BOIS -9

model BOIS -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (159 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (117 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -1.5

CloseBOIS -6

Total56.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 6-point home favorite against UNLV, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points stayed under 59.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 6.7; 61.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5
Close	JMU vs GASO 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6	41–13	W	U59.5
Close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Close	BAY vs OKST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–28	W	O64.5
Close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Close	OU vs KU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-10.5	52–42	L	O66.25
Close	UL vs MRSH 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	3–31	L	U57.5
Close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-6	34–23	W	P57
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-6	42–20	W	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWLWW	7-5	58%	5-1	1-1
BOIS WLLWL	8-4	67%	5-1	7-3

Venue/role: UNLV away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUUO	6-6	50%	10-2
BOIS UUUOU	6-6	50%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BOIS	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

UNLV 0–4 BOIS BOIS leads · 4 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 4 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	UNLV 31 @ Boise State 56	BOIS -13.5	BOIS W
Dec 6 2024	UNLV 7 @ Boise State 21	BOIS -3.5	BOIS W
Oct 25 2024	Boise State 29 @ UNLV 24	BOIS -3.5	BOIS W
Dec 2 2023	Boise State 44 @ UNLV 20	BOIS -2	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−0.7▼ 6.1#72

BOIS+6.0 →+4.3▼ 1.7#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

UNLV

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#14

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#58

#102

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#38

+0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #38

66 plays #81

Pace

BOIS faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #12	23.2 #56	UNLV
Yards / play	7.04 #10	5.37 #53	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.28 #15	+0.02 #31	Even
Success rate	48% #19	36% #12	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #42	28.1 #90	BOIS
Yards / play	5.82 #62	6.38 #127	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.14 #55	+0.14 #87	BOIS
Success rate	42% #71	44% #102	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	5.9 #73	13.8 #1	19.7 #15	6.8 #42	10.2 #11	17.0 #17
BOIS allowed	3.9 #36	8.2 #84	12.1 #62	4.8 #51	6.3 #60	11.1 #51

BOIS scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	8.3 #22	8.3 #73	16.5 #46	6.2 #60	8.2 #37	14.3 #41
UNLV allowed	7.1 #105	7.1 #60	14.2 #90	6.6 #100	7.1 #81	13.7 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.