UNLV @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F0 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

9-2 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

3-8 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

UNLV -7.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 32–25 NEV

✓ UNLV (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -8.5

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -8.5

1 → NEV

CloseUNLV -7.5

1 pt toward Nevada

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -8.5 · closed UNLV -7.5 · moved 1 toward NEVmodel UNLV -9

model UNLV -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (154 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (313 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -8.5

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 7.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 42–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 8.3; 56.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Very close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	44–37	L	O55.5
Very close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7	20–10	W	U51
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	49–46	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LLWLW	6-5	55%	4-1	5-4
NEV WLLWW	5-6	45%	1-4	5-4

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOUUU	5-6	45%	9-2
NEV UUOOU	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 629 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NEV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNLV 2–0 NEV UNLV leads · 2 games since 2023 · UNLV has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Nevada 14 @ UNLV 38	UNLV -17.5	UNLV W
Oct 14 2023	UNLV 45 @ Nevada 27	UNLV -7.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−1.4▼ 6.8#74

NEV−9.7 →−13.0▼ 3.3#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UNLV

Longer bar = better

NEV

#16

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#126

#106

Defense

NEV better ▶

#71

+0.6 #25

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−1.1 #136

67 plays #68

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

60 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #15	26.2 #78	UNLV
Yards / play	6.89 #11	5.39 #56	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.25 #16	+0.11 #74	UNLV
Success rate	47% #20	42% #77	UNLV

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #128	29.1 #95	UNLV
Yards / play	4.99 #115	6.50 #129	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	+0.15 #98	UNLV
Success rate	36% #128	44% #101	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	5.8 #76	13.1 #4	18.9 #19	6.8 #44	10.5 #6	17.3 #17
NEV allowed	6.2 #92	9.0 #98	15.2 #98	5.6 #71	5.4 #38	11.0 #50

NEV scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	2.4 #131	6.3 #107	8.6 #125	3.1 #126	5.9 #95	9.0 #119
UNLV allowed	7.5 #113	7.7 #72	15.2 #98	6.5 #99	7.1 #83	13.6 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.