Fresno State @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

7-4 · Power #82

▲ winner

Final

San José State

3-8 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

FRES -3

✓ FRES W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 27–25 SJSU

✓ FRES (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -3

CloseFRES -3

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -3

no move

CloseFRES -3

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -3 · unchangedmodel FRES -1

model FRES -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -3

CloseFRES -3

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 3-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 41–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 3; 44.2 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU @ ORST 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	7–10	L	U47.5
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	TROY @ ULM 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	37–14	W	O45.5
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	LIB @ FIU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	27–34	L	O51.5
Very close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	20–14	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LLWWL	5-6	45%	2-3	2-4
SJSU LWLLL	4-7	36%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; SJSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUUUU	4-7	36%	7-4
SJSU UOUOU	6-5	55%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 410 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FRES 1–1 SJSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	San José State 10 @ Fresno State 33	FRES -6.5	FRES W
Nov 11 2023	Fresno State 18 @ San José State 42	SJSU -2	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.5 →−6.0▼ 1.5#90

SJSU−6.2 →−9.4▼ 3.2#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FRES

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#102

Offense

SJSU better ▶

#64

#40

Defense

◀ FRES better

#105

+0.2 #54

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−1.0 #131

65 plays #89

Pace

SJSU faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #86	31.7 #118	FRES
Yards / play	5.31 #98	5.99 #108	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #113	+0.19 #114	Even
Success rate	39% #111	43% #81	SJSU

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	SJSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #109	20.6 #33	FRES
Yards / play	6.16 #36	4.84 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #61	+0.06 #57	Even
Success rate	44% #48	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	5.4 #86	8.5 #71	13.9 #76	4.5 #102	6.7 #67	11.2 #95
SJSU allowed	7.6 #118	9.5 #109	17.2 #119	4.7 #50	9.8 #131	14.5 #105

SJSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.0 #113	9.0 #61	13.0 #87	4.6 #96	4.5 #122	9.1 #118
FRES allowed	5.5 #79	6.9 #56	12.5 #67	3.0 #14	5.2 #35	8.2 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.