Boise State @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F2 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boise State

7-4 · Power #55

▲ winner

Final

Utah State

6-5 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

BOIS -1.5

✓ USU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 30–28 USU

✓ BOIS (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -3

CloseBOIS -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -3

1.5 → USU

CloseBOIS -1.5

1.5 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -3 · closed BOIS -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward USUmodel BOIS -6

model BOIS -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (158 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 58% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -3

CloseBOIS -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 1.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 25–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 3.6; 62.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	ECU @ UTSA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	24–58	L	O62.5
Very close	DUKE @ WAKE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–17	W	U53
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & total	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWLLW	8-3	73%	3-2	7-2
USU WLWWW	9-2	82%	5-0	5-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OUUUO	6-5	55%	7-4
USU UUOUU	5-6	45%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BOIS 2–0 USU BOIS leads · 2 games since 2023 · BOIS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Utah State 30 @ Boise State 62	BOIS -27.5	BOIS W
Nov 18 2023	Boise State 45 @ Utah State 10	BOIS -4	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+6.0 →+4.5▼ 1.5#49

USU−10.4 →−4.3▲ 6.1#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BOIS

Longer bar = better

USU

#54

Offense

Even

#42

#38

Defense

◀ BOIS better

#98

+0.5 #35

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #42

72 plays #17

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #44	28.5 #96	BOIS
Yards / play	5.88 #58	5.84 #97	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.15 #51	+0.16 #105	BOIS
Success rate	43% #64	44% #93	BOIS

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #38	23.1 #59	USU
Yards / play	6.37 #26	5.29 #51	USU
PPA / play	+0.20 #33	+0.02 #31	Even
Success rate	43% #70	36% #12	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	8.1 #23	8.7 #67	16.8 #42	6.2 #58	8.4 #33	14.5 #42
USU allowed	4.9 #58	10.9 #128	15.8 #103	5.2 #59	7.0 #86	12.2 #69

USU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	8.2 #22	9.4 #53	17.5 #33	8.0 #24	6.6 #70	14.6 #40
BOIS allowed	3.0 #19	8.3 #89	11.3 #47	5.0 #54	6.8 #76	11.8 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.