Indiana @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff24°F1 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

11-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-9 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

IU -28.5

✓ IU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 41–13 PUR

✓ IU (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -28.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -28.5

no move

CloseIU -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -28.5 · unchangedmodel IU -28

model IU -28

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -28.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 28.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IU won 56–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.2 against an average line of 27.5; 54.2 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU @ PUR 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-29.5	34–10	L	U49.5
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Close	ORE @ STAN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-27	42–6	W	U61
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Close	OSU @ NU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-28.5	31–7	L	U44.5
Close	ND @ BC 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings	-31	25–10	L	U55.5
Close	PSU @ PUR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-30	49–10	W	O51.5
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-26	56–23	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU LWWLL	5-5	50%	2-2	4-5
PUR LLWWL	5-6	45%	3-3	4-4

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOOOU	7-4	64%	11-0
PUR UUUUO	3-8	27%	2-9

Went over in Q4. Of 568 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	10-0 100%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
PUR	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IU 44–75 PUR (6 tied) PUR leads · 125 games since 1892 · IU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Purdue 0 @ Indiana 66	IU -28.5	IU W
Nov 25 2023	Indiana 31 @ Purdue 35	PUR -6.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+25.5▲ 12.1#2

PUR−8.2 →−2.2▲ 6.0#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

PUR

Offense

◀ IU better

#92

Defense

◀ IU better

#121

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ IU better

−0.9 #129

69 plays #45

Pace

◀ IU faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #2	29.6 #103	IU
Yards / play	6.96 #12	6.31 #123	IU
PPA / play	+0.29 #10	+0.23 #127	IU
Success rate	53% #2	47% #129	IU

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	PUR off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #120	11.6 #2	IU
Yards / play	5.43 #88	4.56 #11	IU
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	−0.07 #8	IU
Success rate	43% #60	34% #6	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	10.5 #6	11.7 #14	22.2 #6	12.6 #1	8.5 #32	21.1 #2
PUR allowed	4.4 #45	13.1 #136	17.5 #121	6.7 #108	5.5 #39	12.2 #70

PUR scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	5.6 #75	5.5 #116	11.1 #105	3.6 #119	5.5 #101	9.1 #120
IU allowed	2.7 #13	3.9 #6	6.6 #6	1.7 #2	3.3 #7	5.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.