Northwestern @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff33°F17 mphgusts 33Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northwestern

6-5 · Power #59

final

Final

Illinois

7-4 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -7

Push

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 19–26 ILL

✓ ILL (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -7

CloseILL -7

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -7

no move

CloseILL -7

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -7 · unchangedmodel ILL -9

model ILL -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (191 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -7

CloseILL -7

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 7-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 20–13; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 6.5; 44.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	UCF vs UTAH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	14–28	L	U46.5
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	3–7	L	U46
Close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	VT vs UVA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	37–17	W	O44.5
Close	TULN vs ARMY 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-10	24–17	L	U44.5
Close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWLWL	7-4	64%	2-2	4-2
ILL LLWWL	7-4	64%	5-1	6-1

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOOOO	6-5	55%	6-5
ILL UOUUU	5-6	45%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ILL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NU 1–1 ILL Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Illinois 38 @ Northwestern 28	ILL -8.5	ILL W
Nov 25 2023	Northwestern 45 @ Illinois 43	ILL -6	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−2.5 →+2.6▲ 5.1#59

ILL+4.1 →+8.3▲ 4.2#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

ILL

#78

Offense

ILL better ▶

#42

#80

Defense

Even

#91

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+0.1 #68

64 plays #104

Pace

Even

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #97	24.2 #64	ILL
Yards / play	5.59 #78	5.45 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #78	+0.19 #117	NU
Success rate	44% #59	46% #124	NU

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #46	21.0 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #52	5.77 #86	ILL
PPA / play	+0.16 #47	+0.14 #90	ILL
Success rate	47% #23	45% #109	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.9 #98	6.5 #103	11.4 #102	5.5 #82	6.5 #72	12.0 #83
ILL allowed	5.9 #84	6.4 #41	12.3 #63	5.0 #54	6.9 #76	11.9 #62

ILL scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	5.0 #94	10.3 #34	15.3 #61	8.1 #21	6.8 #66	14.9 #38
NU allowed	3.2 #25	7.5 #71	10.6 #37	5.6 #69	4.7 #30	10.4 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.