Maryland vs Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Maryland

4-7 · Power #72

final

Final

Michigan State

3-8 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -4

✓ MSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 23–26 MSU

✓ MSU (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -3.5

CloseMSU -4

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -3.5

0.5 → MSU

CloseMSU -4

0.5 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -3.5 · closed MSU -4 · moved 0.5 toward MSUmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 50%, covered 39% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -3.5

CloseMSU -4

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against MD, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 38–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 3.5; 42.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT vs SYR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	13–28	L	O37.75
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Close	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Close	NEB vs BC 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3.5	20–15	W	U47.5
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Close	TTU vs CAL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	34–14	W	U55.5
Close	GASO vs SHSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	26–31	L	O48.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MD WLLLL	5-6	45%	—	4-4
MSU WWWLW	6-5	55%	—	0-4

Venue/role: MD neutral, as underdog; MSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOUUO	4-7	36%	4-7
MSU OOUUU	6-5	55%	3-8

Went over in Q3. Of 609 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSU	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MD 1–1 MSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Michigan State 27 @ Maryland 24	MD -7.5	MSU W
Sep 23 2023	Maryland 31 @ Michigan State 9	MD -7	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+2.1 →0.0▼ 2.1#67

MSU+0.3 →−0.1▼ 0.4#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

MSU

#100

Offense

Even

#101

#69

Defense

◀ MD better

#106

+0.6 #24

Turnovers

◀ MD better

−0.3 #96

65 plays #87

Pace

◀ MD faster

63 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #101	30.1 #106	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #101	5.86 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #94	+0.15 #102	Even
Success rate	40% #105	45% #118	Even

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	MSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #96	25.5 #75	MD
Yards / play	5.29 #99	5.52 #64	MD
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.04 #44	MD
Success rate	41% #95	43% #93	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MD scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.8 #76	9.3 #55	15.1 #64	4.9 #93	3.1 #134	8.0 #130
MSU allowed	6.8 #98	7.3 #62	14.1 #90	6.0 #83	8.3 #110	14.3 #103

MSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.1 #111	5.5 #115	9.6 #119	6.8 #44	5.3 #108	12.1 #78
MD allowed	3.2 #25	7.5 #70	10.6 #36	6.2 #91	8.6 #117	14.8 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.