Ohio State @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff29°F6 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio State

11-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Michigan

9-2 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

OSU -10

✓ OSU W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 28–18 MICH

✓ OSU (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -10

CloseOSU -10

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -10

no move

CloseOSU -10

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -10 · unchangedmodel OSU -11.5

model OSU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 75%, covered 54% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -10

CloseOSU -10

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 10-point road favorite at MICH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 27–9; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 10.7; 52.4 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Close	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Close	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	IU @ PSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	27–24	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WWLWW	9-2	82%	3-1	9-2
MICH WLLLW	4-7	36%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; MICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOUOU	4-7	36%	11-0
MICH UOUOO	6-5	55%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
MICH	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OSU 0–2 MICH MICH leads · 2 games since 2023 · MICH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Michigan 13 @ Ohio State 10	OSU -20.5	MICH W
Nov 25 2023	Ohio State 24 @ Michigan 30	MICH -3	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+26.4 →+27.7▲ 1.3#1

MICH+12.2 →+15.0▲ 2.8#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

OSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

Offense

◀ OSU better

#36

Defense

◀ OSU better

#30

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #41

63 plays #110

Pace

MICH faster ▶

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.9 #11	17.9 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.97 #11	4.67 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #4	+0.01 #26	OSU
Success rate	54% #1	41% #63	OSU

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MICH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #54	7.6 #1	OSU
Yards / play	6.43 #24	3.76 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.18 #39	−0.16 #2	OSU
Success rate	47% #28	34% #7	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.5 #33	10.9 #22	18.4 #23	9.5 #9	10.1 #10	19.5 #6
MICH allowed	2.5 #9	6.7 #52	9.3 #17	2.7 #12	5.9 #52	8.6 #17

MICH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	6.9 #41	6.9 #94	13.8 #78	8.7 #16	6.7 #69	15.5 #33
OSU allowed	0.5 #1	2.4 #2	2.9 #1	2.1 #6	2.6 #2	4.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.