Indiana vs Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2025)

Sat, Dec 6, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indiana

12-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Ohio State

12-0 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

OSU -3.5

✓ IU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 23–26 OSU

✗ OSU (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -5.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -5.5

2 → IU

CloseOSU -3.5

2 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -5.5 · closed OSU -3.5 · moved 2 toward IUmodel OSU -1.5

model OSU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (211 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -5.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like OSU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against IU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 13–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 8 similar games. 23 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 3.9; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	OSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	34–23	W	O45.5
Loose	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings	-2	27–20	W	O46
Loose	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Loose	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5
Loose	PSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O45.5
Loose	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3	19–22	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IU WWLLW	6-5	55%	—	1-0
OSU WLWWW	10-2	83%	—	10-2

Venue/role: IU neutral, as underdog; OSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOOUO	8-4	67%	12-0
OSU OUOUU	4-8	33%	12-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	10-0 100%	5-4 56%	7-3 70%
OSU	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IU 13–82 OSU (5 tied) OSU leads · 100 games since 1901 · OSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Indiana 15 @ Ohio State 38	OSU -10.5	OSU W
Sep 2 2023	Ohio State 23 @ Indiana 3	OSU -27.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU+13.4 →+26.7▲ 13.3#2

OSU+26.4 →+28.2▲ 1.8#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

OSU

Offense

Even

Defense

Even

+1.4 #1

Turnovers

◀ IU better

+0.4 #39

68 plays #60

Pace

◀ IU faster

64 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #2	7.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #6	3.77 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #9	−0.16 #2	Even
Success rate	54% #1	33% #5	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #12	10.9 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.85 #14	4.48 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #4	−0.07 #6	Even
Success rate	53% #3	34% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	10.2 #6	12.5 #7	22.7 #5	13.3 #1	8.3 #32	21.7 #2
OSU allowed	1.0 #1	2.4 #2	3.4 #1	1.9 #5	2.4 #2	4.3 #1

OSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.1 #34	11.2 #21	18.3 #23	9.3 #10	9.5 #18	18.8 #8
IU allowed	2.8 #14	3.6 #6	6.3 #6	1.6 #2	3.0 #5	4.6 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.