Miami vs Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · CFP Quarterfinal, 2025)

Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTGoodyear Cotton Bowl Classic · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami

11-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Ohio State

12-1 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

OSU -7.5

✓ MIA W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 19–26 OSU

✗ OSU (71%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -9.5

CloseOSU -7.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -9.5

2 → MIA

CloseOSU -7.5

2 pts toward Miami

Total

Open43.5

▼ 4

Close39.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -9.5 · closed OSU -7.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel OSU -8.5

model OSU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 41% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (215 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -9.5

CloseOSU -7.5

Total43.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like OSU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against MIA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 7 similar games. 38 points stayed under 39.5, as in 3 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 5.4; 52 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	34–23	W	O45.5
Close	OSU vs IU 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar situation	-3.5	10–13	L	U45.75
Loose	ND vs ORST 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-5.5	40–8	W	O40.5
Loose	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Loose	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2	27–20	W	O46
Loose	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-8	45–51	L	O56
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5	24–27	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIA LWLWW	8-5	62%	—	2-0
OSU LWWWL	10-3	77%	0-1	10-3

Venue/role: MIA neutral, as underdog; OSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUU	5-8	38%	11-2
OSU UOUUU	4-9	31%	12-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 56% of games with totals 35.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
OSU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+20.4▲ 2.4#7

OSU+26.4 →+28.0▲ 1.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

OSU

#25

Offense

OSU better ▶

Defense

Even

+0.8 #12

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

+0.4 #38

66 plays #78

Pace

◀ MIA faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MIA off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #28	8.2 #1	OSU
Yards / play	6.28 #26	3.94 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #28	−0.13 #3	OSU
Success rate	47% #19	34% #5	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	34.9 #16	13.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.78 #13	4.50 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #6	−0.07 #7	Even
Success rate	52% #2	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.8 #71	9.5 #45	15.3 #55	9.0 #11	7.9 #40	16.9 #15
OSU allowed	1.2 #1	2.5 #2	3.6 #1	2.3 #6	2.2 #1	4.5 #2

OSU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	7.1 #35	10.5 #22	17.6 #24	8.5 #12	8.8 #24	17.3 #13
MIA allowed	2.3 #5	2.1 #1	4.4 #3	2.3 #6	5.8 #48	8.2 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.