Oregon vs Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Capital One Orange Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2025)

Thu, Jan 1, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTCapital One Orange Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff61°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

12-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Texas Tech

12-1 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

TTU -1.5

✓ ORE W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 27–28 TTU

✗ TTU (53%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -1.5

CloseTTU -1.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -1.5

3 → TTU

CloseTTU -1.5

3 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -1.5 · closed TTU -1.5 · moved 3 toward TTUmodel ORE -1

model ORE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 47% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (261 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -1.5

CloseTTU -1.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against ORE, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 23–0 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3.2; 52.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	24–27	L	O45.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	ND vs UGA 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-1	23–10	W	U46
Close	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Loose	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Loose	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Loose	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-3	19–22	L	U51
Loose	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ORE LWWWL	7-6	54%	—	1-0
TTU WWWWW	11-1	92%	1-0	10-1

Venue/role: ORE neutral, as underdog; TTU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE UOOUO	7-6	54%	12-1
TTU O–OUU	5-7	42%	12-1

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
TTU	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ORE 1–0 TTU ORE leads · 1 game since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Oregon 38 @ Texas Tech 30	ORE -4.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+25.4▲ 4.1#3

TTU+5.6 →+24.2▲ 18.6#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ORE

Longer bar = better

TTU

Offense

◀ ORE better

#23

#13

Defense

Even

+0.5 #33

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+1.3 #3

65 plays #95

Pace

TTU faster ▶

75 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	39.2 #8	10.9 #3	Even
Yards / play	7.25 #3	3.96 #2	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #2	−0.29 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #5	30% #1	Even

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	42.5 #2	16.3 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #21	4.36 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #18	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	44% #49	37% #17	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	9.1 #11	13.5 #1	22.6 #5	10.3 #5	5.2 #111	15.5 #27
TTU allowed	1.5 #2	2.8 #2	4.3 #2	1.6 #2	5.0 #30	6.6 #5

TTU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	12.6 #3	11.8 #8	24.5 #2	8.5 #13	9.5 #14	18.0 #9
ORE allowed	2.3 #6	3.2 #4	5.5 #4	2.9 #10	7.3 #87	10.2 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.