Alabama vs Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Rose Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2025)

Thu, Jan 1, 2026, 4:00 PM ESTRose Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff60°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

11-3 · Power #11

final

Final

Indiana

13-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 22–30 IU

✓ IU (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -6.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -6.5

1 → IU

CloseIU -7.5

1 pt toward Indiana

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -6.5 · closed IU -7.5 · moved 1 toward IUmodel IU -8

model IU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 40% (45 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (97 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIU -6.5

CloseIU -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against ALA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 38–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.4; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	MICH vs ALA 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-2	27–20	W	O46
Close	OSU vs ND 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	34–23	W	O45.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–20	L	U50.5
Loose	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4	3–14	L	U51
Loose	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form	-12.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-5	34–13	W	U55.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	34–22	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ALA LWPLW	8-5-1	62%	0-1	2-1
IU WLLWW	7-5	58%	1-0	5-5

Venue/role: ALA neutral, as underdog; IU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA UUUUO	6-8	43%	11-3
IU OOUOU	8-5	62%	13-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%
IU	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+19.9▼ 1.1#8

IU+13.4 →+27.0▲ 13.6#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ALA

Longer bar = better

#51

Offense

IU better ▶

#18

Defense

Even

+0.6 #21

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+1.3 #2

67 plays #63

Pace

Even

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	ALA off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #33	10.8 #2	IU
Yards / play	5.67 #71	4.57 #12	IU
PPA / play	+0.18 #37	−0.06 #8	IU
Success rate	43% #61	35% #7	IU

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	41.9 #4	17.9 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.09 #7	4.82 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #10	0.00 #24	Even
Success rate	53% #1	37% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.4 #49	11.8 #9	18.2 #19	5.5 #79	7.7 #45	13.2 #57
IU allowed	3.1 #15	3.5 #7	6.6 #6	1.5 #1	2.8 #3	4.2 #1

IU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.6 #6	11.8 #10	21.4 #7	12.8 #1	7.7 #46	20.5 #3
ALA allowed	3.6 #35	5.3 #21	8.9 #17	4.5 #42	4.4 #19	8.9 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.