Miami @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP First Round, 2025)

Sat, Dec 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTCFP First Round · at Texas A&M

Weather at kickoff67°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Miami

10-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Texas A&M

11-1 · Power #10

final

Closing spread

TA&M -3

✓ MIA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 13 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 24–26 TA&M

✗ TA&M (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -4

CloseTA&M -3

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -4

1 → MIA

CloseTA&M -3

1 pt toward Miami

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -4 · closed TA&M -3 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel TA&M -2

model TA&M -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (268 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (317 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTA&M -4

CloseTA&M -3

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 3-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 10–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 13 points stayed under 48.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 3.5; 44.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WISC vs MD 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–10	W	U47.5
Close	SMU vs LOU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-4	38–6	W	U49.5
Close	TA&M vs MIZ 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form	-2.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–24	L	U53.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread	-2	29–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLWLW	7-5	58%	2-2	1-0
TA&M WWLLL	5-7	42%	2-5	4-7

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; TA&M home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUOU	5-7	42%	10-2
TA&M OOOUU	8-4	67%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 46 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TA&M	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 4–2 TA&M MIA leads · 6 games since 1944 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Texas A&M 33 @ Miami 48	TA&M -3	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+18.0 →+20.4▲ 2.4#7

TA&M+14.3 →+19.1▲ 4.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#20

Offense

Even

#19

Defense

◀ MIA better

#37

+0.8 #14

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.6 #118

67 plays #61

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #19	21.9 #43	MIA
Yards / play	6.32 #26	5.04 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.08 #65	MIA
Success rate	49% #13	34% #7	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #14	13.8 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.56 #21	4.51 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #17	−0.06 #9	Even
Success rate	47% #24	36% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.3 #57	10.3 #30	16.6 #42	9.5 #7	8.0 #37	17.5 #14
TA&M allowed	5.6 #78	5.3 #21	10.9 #40	4.1 #34	6.9 #76	11.0 #51

TA&M scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.1 #25	9.7 #45	17.8 #30	9.2 #11	9.4 #18	18.6 #8
MIA allowed	2.5 #9	2.3 #1	4.8 #3	2.5 #9	6.1 #57	8.6 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.