Toledo vs Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Bush's Boca Raton Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 23, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTBush's Boca Raton Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff78°F12 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

8-4 · Power #48

final

Final

Louisville

8-4 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -11.5

✓ TOL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 18–28 LOU

✓ LOU (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -9.5

CloseLOU -11.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -9.5

2 → LOU

CloseLOU -11.5

2 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open46.5

▼ 2

Close44.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -9.5 · closed LOU -11.5 · moved 2 toward LOUmodel LOU -6.5

model LOU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (255 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -9.5

CloseLOU -11.5

Total46.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as an 11.5-point neutral-site favorite against TOL, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LOU won 27–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 8.4; 45.2 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Close	FLA vs TULN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-10	33–8	W	U49.5
Close	ARMY vs NAVY 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation	-6.5	13–31	L	O39
Loose	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	21–17	L	U50.5
Loose	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Loose	MINN vs VT 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-10	24–10	W	U43.5
Loose	PSU vs BOIS 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & season form	-12	31–14	W	U54.5
Loose	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7.25	44–41	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TOL LWWWW	9-3	75%	—	1-0
LOU WLLLW	4-8	33%	—	2-7

Venue/role: TOL neutral, as underdog; LOU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOUOU	6-6	50%	8-4
LOU UOUUU	5-7	42%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 413 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
LOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+4.6▲ 9.1#47

LOU+11.2 →+10.6▼ 0.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TOL

Longer bar = better

LOU

#45

Offense

Even

#52

Defense

◀ TOL better

#18

+0.5 #31

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

+0.3 #50

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ TOL faster

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	TOL off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #37	21.1 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.30 #26	4.69 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #64	−0.07 #7	LOU
Success rate	44% #52	36% #14	LOU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	LOU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #46	12.2 #4	TOL
Yards / play	5.99 #39	3.91 #1	TOL
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	−0.16 #2	TOL
Success rate	44% #45	32% #3	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.7 #45	12.3 #7	19.0 #15	7.2 #37	5.4 #102	12.6 #67
LOU allowed	5.8 #81	6.0 #32	11.8 #52	3.3 #19	5.0 #29	8.3 #15

LOU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.9 #35	8.8 #61	15.8 #50	6.3 #54	7.7 #44	13.9 #45
TOL allowed	2.3 #4	3.3 #5	5.6 #5	1.3 #1	5.3 #35	6.6 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.