Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Myrtle Beach Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Dec 19, 2025, 11:00 AM ESTMyrtle Beach Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff64°F16 mphgusts 35DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kennesaw State

10-3 · Power #97

final

Final

Western Michigan

9-4 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -3.5

✓ WMU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

KENN 20–24 WMU

✓ WMU (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -3

CloseWMU -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -3

0.5 → WMU

CloseWMU -3.5

0.5 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -3 · closed WMU -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward WMUmodel WMU -3.5 matches the line

model WMU -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (47 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWMU -3

CloseWMU -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against KENN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 41–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 3.5; 49 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH vs CSU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	43–17	W	O42.5
Very close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Very close	NIU vs FRES 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–20	W	O40.5
Very close	WMU vs M-OH 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	23–13	W	U44.25
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	3–38	L	U44
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KENN LLWWW	9-4	69%	—	3-1
WMU LWWWW	10-3	77%	1-0	7-1

Venue/role: KENN neutral, as underdog; WMU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN UOOOU	5-8	38%	10-3
WMU OUOOU	6-7	46%	9-4

Stayed under: it needed 1 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENN	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
WMU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENN−24.1 →−7.7▲ 16.4#93

WMU−10.1 →−4.4▲ 5.7#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

KENN

Longer bar = better

WMU

#61

Offense

◀ KENN better

#91

#70

Defense

WMU better ▶

#20

−0.2 #83

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.5 #26

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ KENN faster

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: WMU defense

	KENN off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #65	18.2 #14	WMU
Yards / play	5.87 #54	4.94 #24	WMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #51	−0.01 #21	WMU
Success rate	42% #75	37% #19	WMU

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #95	24.3 #67	KENN
Yards / play	5.05 #114	5.73 #87	KENN
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	+0.08 #64	KENN
Success rate	43% #62	41% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENN scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENN scored	9.3 #8	4.8 #122	14.2 #76	5.9 #66	7.2 #57	13.2 #60
WMU allowed	4.6 #50	3.6 #7	8.2 #11	2.8 #13	6.8 #73	9.5 #33

WMU scoring against the KENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	1.8 #134	9.5 #50	11.3 #103	6.5 #48	5.5 #100	12.1 #82
KENN allowed	4.2 #41	5.9 #32	10.2 #27	5.2 #65	8.4 #114	13.6 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.