Missouri State vs Arkansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Xbox Bowl, 2025)

Thu, Dec 18, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTXbox Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Missouri State

7-5 · Power #112

final

Final

Arkansas State

6-6 · Power #110

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARST -1.5

✓ ARST W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 27–28 ARST

✓ ARST (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -2.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARST -2.5

1 → MOST

CloseARST -1.5

1 pt toward Missouri State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARST -2.5 · closed ARST -1.5 · moved 1 toward MOSTmodel ARST -0.5

model ARST -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (52 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (316 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARST -2.5

CloseARST -1.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARST as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against MOST, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 34–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARST vs NIU 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–21	L	U53.75
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	GASO vs SHSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	26–31	L	O48.5
Close	TXST vs RICE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	45–21	W	O59
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	UNC vs CONN 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-2	14–27	L	U53.5
Close	M-OH vs CSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	43–17	W	O42.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Loose	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Loose	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MOST WWWLL	7-5	58%	—	3-3
ARST WWWLL	7-5	58%	—	2-3

Venue/role: MOST neutral, as underdog; ARST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UUOOO	4-8	33%	7-5
ARST UUUOO	4-8	33%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 550 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
ARST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−21.0 →−11.8▲ 9.2#113

ARST−9.7 →−11.4▼ 1.7#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MOST

Longer bar = better

ARST

#70

Offense

◀ MOST better

#92

#99

Defense

Even

#100

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

−0.8 #123

65 plays #94

Pace

ARST faster ▶

75 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Advantage: MOST offense

	MOST off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #82	27.3 #84	Even
Yards / play	6.03 #39	6.11 #116	MOST
PPA / play	+0.14 #55	+0.15 #102	MOST
Success rate	39% #105	44% #99	Even

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #90	28.3 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #108	5.87 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.17 #111	Even
Success rate	43% #63	44% #96	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	5.1 #92	7.8 #85	12.9 #87	6.0 #63	5.9 #92	11.9 #82
ARST allowed	9.4 #130	6.8 #53	16.3 #107	4.3 #38	6.8 #70	11.1 #53

ARST scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	6.3 #61	7.6 #88	13.8 #77	3.1 #127	7.5 #51	10.6 #100
MOST allowed	4.3 #44	9.2 #101	13.5 #80	6.3 #92	8.6 #119	14.8 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.