Rice vs Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Jan 2, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTLockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Rice

5-7 · Power #126

final

Final

Texas State

6-6 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -19.5

✓ TXST W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 19–38 TXST

✓ TXST (91%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -10.5

CloseTXST -19.5

Total59.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RICE WLWLL	5-7	42%	—	3-5
TXST LLWLW	4-8	33%	—	2-6

Venue/role: RICE neutral, as underdog; TXST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OOUOU	7-5	58%	5-7
TXST OOUUO	7-5	58%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TXST	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RICE 2–4 TXST TXST leads · 6 games since 1920 · TXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 26 2023	Texas State 45 @ Rice 21	TXST -3.5	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−9.0 →−15.4▼ 6.4#124

TXST+1.6 →−1.1▼ 2.7#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

RICE

Longer bar = better

TXST

#116

Offense

TXST better ▶

#15

#104

Defense

Even

#96

−0.2 #86

Turnovers

◀ RICE better

−0.5 #112

67 plays #60

Pace

TXST faster ▶

71 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #119	30.6 #113	Even
Yards / play	4.63 #131	5.68 #82	TXST
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.16 #103	Even
Success rate	38% #113	43% #85	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #12	32.3 #121	TXST
Yards / play	6.70 #17	6.28 #123	TXST
PPA / play	+0.29 #8	+0.21 #121	TXST
Success rate	47% #23	40% #52	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	4.0 #114	6.6 #102	10.6 #112	3.4 #119	4.8 #118	8.2 #130
TXST allowed	4.8 #51	8.8 #95	13.7 #82	6.3 #96	8.9 #122	15.3 #121

TXST scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	8.2 #21	10.2 #28	18.3 #17	6.3 #57	10.7 #6	16.9 #15
RICE allowed	8.7 #126	9.9 #113	18.6 #129	6.7 #106	6.2 #58	12.8 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.