Navy vs Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AutoZone Liberty Bowl, 2025)

Fri, Jan 2, 2026, 4:30 PM ESTAutoZone Liberty Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff50°F7 mphgusts 13Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

10-2 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

7-5 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

NAVY -7.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 31–26 CIN

✓ NAVY (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -6.5

CloseNAVY -7.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NAVY LLWWL	4-8	33%	0-1	2-6
CIN WLLLL	5-6	45%	1-0	2-3

Venue/role: NAVY neutral, as favorite; CIN neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY UOOUU	8-4	67%	10-2
CIN UOUUO	7-5	58%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
CIN	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →0.0▼ 1.2#67

CIN+3.5 →+4.7▲ 1.2#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

NAVY

Longer bar = better

CIN

#18

Offense

Even

#16

#89

Defense

Even

#94

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−0.3 #96

63 plays #111

Pace

◀ NAVY faster

59 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #34	24.8 #70	NAVY
Yards / play	6.88 #11	5.63 #77	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.26 #14	+0.18 #116	NAVY
Success rate	49% #11	45% #111	NAVY

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #31	26.0 #75	CIN
Yards / play	7.13 #5	6.07 #116	CIN
PPA / play	+0.28 #10	+0.15 #95	CIN
Success rate	48% #16	42% #70	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	6.7 #42	9.8 #40	16.4 #40	5.8 #70	9.0 #20	14.8 #35
CIN allowed	4.9 #53	6.6 #43	11.5 #49	6.6 #102	6.8 #66	13.3 #88

CIN scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	10.4 #5	10.0 #33	20.4 #10	3.9 #112	7.4 #54	11.3 #93
NAVY allowed	6.0 #85	7.8 #71	13.8 #84	5.2 #62	7.1 #80	12.3 #67

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.