North Texas vs San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Isleta New Mexico Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 5:45 PM ESTIsleta New Mexico Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff53°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

11-2 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

9-3 · Power #68

final

Closing spread

UNT -7.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 96 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 33–25 SDSU

✓ UNT (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -6.5

CloseUNT -7.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNT -6.5

1 → UNT

CloseUNT -7.5

1 pt toward North Texas

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNT -6.5 · closed UNT -7.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -9

model UNT -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 42% (43 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNT -6.5

CloseUNT -7.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 49–47; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 96 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 6.9; 49 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	TCU vs UL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–3	W	U59.5
Close	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7.25	44–41	L	O52
Close	JMU vs WKU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	27–17	W	U50.5
Close	TXST vs SHSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-11	39–40	L	O55
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Loose	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	14–36	L	U55.5
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-6.5	34–22	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNT WWWWL	10-3	77%	—	10-3
SDSU WLWWL	8-3	73%	—	1-1

Venue/role: UNT neutral, as favorite; SDSU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UOOOU	9-4	69%	11-2
SDSU UUUUU	3-9	25%	9-3

Went over in Q3. Of 551 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
SDSU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−6.2 →+8.1▲ 14.3#38

SDSU−12.0 →−0.2▲ 11.8#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

UNT

Longer bar = better

SDSU

Offense

◀ UNT better

#86

#67

Defense

SDSU better ▶

+0.6 #18

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

+0.3 #41

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ UNT faster

63 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Even matchup

	UNT off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #1	12.6 #4	Even
Yards / play	7.33 #2	4.12 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #3	−0.13 #4	Even
Success rate	52% #4	33% #4	Even

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #89	24.9 #71	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #90	5.27 #45	UNT
PPA / play	+0.07 #90	+0.06 #53	UNT
Success rate	42% #75	44% #100	SDSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	12.0 #3	12.2 #7	24.2 #3	10.8 #3	8.7 #26	19.5 #6
SDSU allowed	2.8 #17	4.1 #9	6.9 #7	2.6 #9	2.6 #3	5.2 #3

SDSU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	5.8 #74	9.8 #37	15.7 #49	4.2 #104	4.8 #116	9.0 #119
UNT allowed	5.3 #69	6.6 #47	11.9 #61	7.2 #114	5.5 #39	12.8 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.