Miami (OH) vs Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTSnoop Dogg Arizona Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff68°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

7-6 · Power #91

final

Final

Fresno State

8-4 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -5.5

✓ FRES W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 19–23 FRES

✓ FRES (63%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -3.5

CloseFRES -5.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -3.5

2 → FRES

CloseFRES -5.5

2 pts toward Fresno State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 6

Close40.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -3.5 · closed FRES -5.5 · moved 2 toward FRESmodel FRES -1.5

model FRES -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 41% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (258 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -3.5

CloseFRES -5.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 18–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 4.8; 44.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs M-OH 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	13–9	L	U40.75
Close	ODU vs WKU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-4	35–38	L	O48.75
Close	USM vs RICE 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	38–24	W	O45.5
Close	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Close	NIU vs FRES 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–20	W	O40.5
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	17–16	L	U37.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
M-OH LLWWL	8-5	62%	0-1	1-5
FRES LWWLW	6-6	50%	—	3-4

Venue/role: M-OH neutral, as underdog; FRES neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UUOOU	6-7	46%	7-6
FRES UUUUO	5-7	42%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 53% of games with totals 36.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
FRES	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−2.8 →−6.0▼ 3.2#89

FRES−4.5 →−4.5–#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

M-OH

Longer bar = better

FRES

#92

Offense

Even

#100

#35

Defense

Even

#29

+0.5 #25

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

+0.3 #43

63 plays #116

Pace

FRES faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	M-OH off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #87	20.1 #27	FRES
Yards / play	5.54 #81	4.75 #16	FRES
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.02 #30	FRES
Success rate	40% #103	39% #43	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	FRES off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #78	22.0 #45	M-OH
Yards / play	5.32 #97	4.95 #25	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.01 #115	+0.01 #28	M-OH
Success rate	39% #109	39% #40	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	5.0 #94	6.6 #101	11.6 #101	7.3 #35	6.2 #87	13.5 #52
FRES allowed	5.1 #60	6.9 #55	12.0 #61	2.8 #9	5.3 #34	8.1 #13

FRES scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	5.2 #88	9.3 #51	14.5 #69	4.3 #101	7.6 #49	11.9 #82
M-OH allowed	3.6 #34	6.5 #44	10.2 #31	5.0 #52	6.8 #72	11.8 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.