Troy vs Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 16, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTIS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff42°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Troy

8-5 · Power #99

final

Final

Jacksonville State

8-5 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -3

✓ JXST W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 24–27 JXST

✓ JXST (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -3

CloseJXST -3

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -3

6 → JXST

CloseJXST -3

6 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open51.5

▼ 4

Close47.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -3 · closed JXST -3 · moved 6 toward JXSTmodel TROY -1.5

model TROY -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 48%, covered 44% (44 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (158 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTROY -3

CloseJXST -3

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 3-point neutral-site favorite against TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 17–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 3.6; 49.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ODU vs WKU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-4	35–38	L	O48.75
Close	GASO vs OHIO 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	21–41	L	O48.5
Close	USU vs GAST 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-1.75	22–45	L	O57.75
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	WYO vs TOL 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	16–15	L	U44
Close	BUFF vs LIB 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-4	26–7	W	U50.5
Close	UNLV vs CAL 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–13	W	U45
Close	OHIO vs WYO 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-3	30–27	P	O43
Loose	BGSU vs NMSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.25	19–24	L	U50.5
Loose	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	23–25	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TROY LLWWW	10-3	77%	—	6-2
JXST WWLWL	6-7	46%	—	1-3

Venue/role: TROY neutral, as underdog; JXST neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUUU	5-8	38%	8-5
JXST OOUOU	8-5	62%	8-5

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
JXST	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−8.6▼ 1.5#98

JXST−5.1 →−10.1▼ 5.0#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TROY

Longer bar = better

JXST

#110

Offense

JXST better ▶

#48

#67

Defense

◀ TROY better

#81

+0.1 #71

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.7 #18

66 plays #73

Pace

JXST faster ▶

70 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	TROY off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #92	26.2 #77	Even
Yards / play	4.73 #129	5.71 #86	JXST
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.11 #76	JXST
Success rate	39% #111	43% #84	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #59	24.5 #68	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #42	5.68 #81	JXST
PPA / play	+0.15 #50	+0.07 #61	Even
Success rate	45% #42	41% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	2.9 #126	7.8 #85	10.8 #111	3.4 #122	9.1 #23	12.5 #70
JXST allowed	6.3 #96	5.7 #27	12.0 #60	5.5 #71	8.7 #121	14.2 #102

JXST scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	5.8 #74	9.0 #61	14.8 #64	5.6 #78	8.5 #30	14.2 #44
TROY allowed	6.6 #101	6.2 #38	12.8 #71	6.1 #88	5.5 #42	11.6 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.