Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (New Orleans Bowl, 2025)

Tue, Dec 23, 2025, 5:30 PM ESTNew Orleans Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

8-4 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

7-5 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

USM -2.5

✓ WKU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 28–29 USM

✗ USM (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWKU -2.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total55.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -2.5

5 → USM

CloseUSM -2.5

5 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open55.5

▲ 4

Close59.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -2.5 · closed USM -2.5 · moved 5 toward USMmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 46% (55 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (160 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWKU -2.5

CloseUSM -2.5

Total55.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USM as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 27–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 59.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 4.3; 53.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs UL 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O58
Very close	USF vs SJSU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	41–39	W	O66.5
Close	OHIO vs JXST 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	MEM vs WVU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-5	42–37	P	O60.5
Close	NMSU vs FRES 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3	10–37	L	U53
Close	DUKE vs UCF 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3.25	30–13	W	U62.75
Close	NCSU vs ECU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Loose	GASO vs BUFF 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation	-6	21–23	L	U66.5
Loose	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Loose	BGSU vs NMSU 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.25	19–24	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WKU WWWWL	9-3	75%	—	3-1
USM WLLLL	6-6	50%	—	5-4

Venue/role: WKU neutral, as underdog; USM neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUOUO	6-6	50%	8-4
USM OUUOU	6-6	50%	7-5

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
USM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−8.2▲ 0.1#95

USM−18.7 →−8.3▲ 10.4#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

WKU

Longer bar = better

USM

#57

Offense

Even

#66

#54

Defense

Even

#66

−0.4 #108

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.0 #7

70 plays #35

Pace

Even

70 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #50	27.4 #87	WKU
Yards / play	5.82 #60	5.37 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #69	+0.03 #42	USM
Success rate	44% #47	43% #82	WKU

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #49	23.4 #58	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #65	5.71 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #53	+0.05 #50	Even
Success rate	40% #97	38% #23	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	5.7 #76	9.7 #43	15.3 #53	6.6 #46	7.2 #57	13.8 #47
USM allowed	7.1 #106	6.3 #39	13.3 #79	5.6 #73	8.5 #115	14.1 #101

USM scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.0 #70	7.7 #87	13.7 #77	6.9 #40	9.3 #20	16.2 #25
WKU allowed	5.3 #66	7.8 #72	13.0 #74	6.4 #100	3.4 #9	9.8 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.