Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

8-3 · Power #94

final

Final

Jacksonville State

7-4 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

WKU -1.5

✓ JXST W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 29–27 JXST

✗ WKU (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -2.5

CloseWKU -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -2.5

1 → JXST

CloseWKU -1.5

1 pt toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -2.5 · closed WKU -1.5 · moved 1 toward JXSTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (162 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (308 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -2.5

CloseWKU -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 1.5-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 3.1; 60.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF @ OHIO 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–45	L	O61
Very close	MRSH @ APP 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	24–26	L	U56.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	TXST @ ARST 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.25	31–77	L	O59.5
Very close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Very close	KENN @ JXST 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	26–35	L	O56
Very close	USM @ USA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	35–42	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LWWWW	9-2	82%	4-1	6-1
JXST WLWWL	5-6	45%	3-1	4-3

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; JXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU UOUOU	5-6	45%	8-3
JXST OUOOU	7-4	64%	7-4

Went over in Q3. Of 515 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
JXST	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

WKU 1–3 JXST JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 6 2024	Western Kentucky 12 @ Jacksonville State 52	JXST -4.5	JXST W
Nov 30 2024	Jacksonville State 17 @ Western Kentucky 19	JXST -0.5	WKU W
Oct 17 2023	Western Kentucky 17 @ Jacksonville State 20	WKU -7.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−7.8▲ 0.5#94

JXST−5.1 →−10.3▼ 5.2#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WKU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#62

Offense

JXST better ▶

#48

#44

Defense

◀ WKU better

#79

−0.4 #106

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+0.7 #17

70 plays #28

Pace

Even

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #53	26.1 #80	WKU
Yards / play	5.78 #66	5.76 #88	WKU
PPA / play	+0.11 #71	+0.11 #77	Even
Success rate	44% #57	42% #70	Even

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #51	22.2 #47	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #51	5.54 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	+0.04 #42	Even
Success rate	45% #39	37% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	4.9 #95	9.3 #52	14.2 #74	6.9 #43	7.5 #49	14.5 #40
JXST allowed	6.2 #90	4.8 #15	11.0 #46	5.9 #80	9.2 #126	15.1 #118

JXST scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.3 #65	9.1 #59	15.4 #57	6.0 #64	8.2 #35	14.2 #42
WKU allowed	5.1 #60	6.9 #55	12.0 #60	6.4 #96	3.2 #8	9.5 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.