Florida International @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F11 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Florida International

6-5 · Power #109

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

2-9 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

FIU -10.5

✓ FIU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

FIU 29–19 SHSU

✓ FIU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -10.5

CloseFIU -10.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -10.5

no move

CloseFIU -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -10.5 · unchangedmodel FIU -8.5

model FIU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 53% (86 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFIU -10.5

CloseFIU -10.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 10.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 56–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 10.8; 58.5 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	SJSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	10–55	L	O49.5
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Very close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	41–21	W	O49.5
Very close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FIU LLWWW	7-4	64%	3-2	3-1
SHSU LLWWL	3-8	27%	2-2	3-7

Venue/role: FIU away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FIU OUOOU	5-6	45%	6-5
SHSU OOUUU	6-5	55%	2-9

Went over in Q3. Of 633 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FIU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SHSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FIU 1–1 SHSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · SHSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2024	Sam Houston 10 @ Florida International 7	SHSU -6.5	FIU W
Oct 18 2023	Florida International 33 @ Sam Houston 27	SHSU -5.5	FIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FIU−11.4 →−11.6▼ 0.2#111

SHSU−8.0 →−22.2▼ 14.2#135

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FIU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#81

Offense

◀ FIU better

#127

#81

Defense

◀ FIU better

#123

−0.1 #77

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.5 #35

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ FIU faster

63 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: FIU offense

	FIU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #74	36.2 #133	FIU
Yards / play	5.59 #74	6.78 #135	FIU
PPA / play	+0.10 #76	+0.15 #94	Even
Success rate	40% #98	47% #131	FIU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	SHSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	17.9 #127	28.8 #97	FIU
Yards / play	4.98 #121	5.93 #103	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #134	+0.06 #55	FIU
Success rate	36% #126	42% #67	FIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FIU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.0 #90	8.4 #73	13.4 #82	6.4 #53	6.5 #73	12.8 #61
SHSU allowed	7.9 #120	10.0 #116	17.9 #122	6.5 #99	11.7 #136	18.3 #134

SHSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.7 #129	4.3 #127	7.0 #133	6.9 #42	4.0 #127	10.9 #97
FIU allowed	7.2 #104	9.5 #106	16.7 #112	5.6 #71	6.5 #64	12.1 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.