Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Sam Houston

2-8 · Power #135

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-9 · Power #128

▲ winner

Closing spread

MTSU -6.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 23–29 MTSU

✓ MTSU (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -6.5

CloseMTSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMTSU -6.5

no move

CloseMTSU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MTSU -6.5 · unchangedmodel MTSU -5.5

model MTSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (232 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMTSU -6.5

CloseMTSU -6.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 6.5-point home favorite against SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 6; 55.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	GASO vs GAST 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	41–24	W	O58.5
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	40–27	W	O56.5
Very close	MTSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	21–36	L	O53.5
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU WLLWW	3-7	30%	1-5	3-6
MTSU WWWLL	4-6	40%	2-3	0-2

Venue/role: SHSU away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU OOOUU	6-4	60%	2-8
MTSU UOUOO	5-5	50%	1-9

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
MTSU	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 1–1 MTSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Middle Tennessee 20 @ Sam Houston 23	MTSU -3.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−8.0 →−21.5▼ 13.5#134

MTSU−18.0 →−18.8▼ 0.8#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

SHSU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#126

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#102

#121

Defense

Even

#121

+0.6 #26

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.1 #89

62 plays #119

Pace

MTSU faster ▶

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #127	33.0 #127	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #120	5.98 #110	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.22 #126	Even
Success rate	36% #124	46% #122	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #116	36.7 #133	Even
Yards / play	5.26 #100	6.76 #135	MTSU
PPA / play	+0.02 #110	+0.13 #90	Even
Success rate	42% #81	47% #127	MTSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.0 #132	4.7 #121	6.7 #133	7.6 #35	3.7 #128	11.3 #93
MTSU allowed	7.0 #107	10.9 #125	17.9 #125	4.7 #46	10.4 #133	15.1 #120

MTSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.0 #90	5.7 #113	10.7 #111	5.0 #90	5.0 #111	10.0 #110
SHSU allowed	8.7 #128	10.0 #118	18.7 #129	6.5 #97	11.5 #135	18.0 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.