Liberty @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

4-6 · Power #104

final

Final

Louisiana Tech

5-5 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -1.5

✓ LT W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 23–23 LT

✗ LIB (50%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -1.5

3 → LIB

CloseLIB -1.5

3 pts toward Liberty

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -1.5 · closed LIB -1.5 · moved 3 toward LIBmodel LT -5

model LT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 51% (152 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (236 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -1.5

CloseLIB -1.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 1.5-point road favorite at LT, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LT won 34–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 45.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 1.9; 64.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Very close	JXST @ NMSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-0.25	17–20	L	U48.5
Very close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Very close	MRSH @ UL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–54	L	O48
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	28–35	L	O49.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Very close	KENN @ FIU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	45–26	W	O48.5
Close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-1	19–47	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WLWLL	3-7	30%	2-3	2-6
LT LLWLL	6-4	60%	4-1	1-1

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; LT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UOOUO	4-6	40%	4-6
LT UOOUU	3-7	30%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 437 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
LT	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 1–0 LT LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Louisiana Tech 30 @ Liberty 56	LIB -14	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−5.7 →−10.1▼ 4.4#107

LT−11.6 →−8.2▲ 3.4#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LIB

Longer bar = better

#81

Offense

Even

#92

#70

Defense

LT better ▶

#29

−0.3 #99

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+0.5 #29

68 plays #54

Pace

◀ LIB faster

65 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	LIB off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #99	19.8 #24	LT
Yards / play	5.51 #79	5.23 #48	LT
PPA / play	+0.07 #92	0.00 #23	LT
Success rate	44% #55	38% #21	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	LT off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #80	23.6 #66	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #93	5.46 #61	LIB
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.10 #78	Even
Success rate	41% #95	42% #75	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.1 #110	7.8 #81	11.9 #97	4.4 #106	7.4 #53	11.8 #87
LT allowed	3.7 #36	5.4 #26	9.1 #19	3.8 #30	6.1 #60	9.9 #41

LT scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	6.9 #50	4.9 #120	11.8 #98	4.5 #104	8.6 #31	13.1 #60
LIB allowed	2.3 #8	6.7 #51	9.0 #17	6.0 #91	7.9 #109	13.9 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.